Bonds Analysis & Opinion

The sharp drop in Treasury yields in recent days has revived chatter that the worst for the bond market may be over. It’s still early to confidently forecast that scenario, but the odds for recovery...

Here we go again. After yesterday’s news that US job openings fell to a three-year low in April, the data fueled the incentive for the bond market to reassess the view that the Federal Reserve will...

When the US Treasury yield curve inverts (short rates rise above long rates) the shift is widely viewed as a reliable forecast that a recession is near. But this time has been different, or so it...

A ‘fair-value’ estimate of the US 10-year Treasury yield was steady in April while the market level for the benchmark rate continued to rise well above the theoretical level. But trading...

The stock market keeps on pushing higher despite. Against this backdrop, investors should exercise caution due to high valuations and market cyclicality. Bonds offer attractive returns and can reduce...

Foreign fixed-income markets from a US investor perspective have been an unappealing asset class lately – with a glaring exception: corporate bonds in emerging markets. Year to date, this slice...

Bowing to recent data, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday conceded that inflation progress has stalled and the case for rate cuts has weakened.The Treasury market has been effectively...

The market continues to price the US 10-year Treasury yield well above its estimated “fair value,” based on the average of three models run by CapitalSpectator.com.Yesterday’s...

The 10-year treasury bond yield is very closely watched by banks, consumers, and active investors. It is used as a measuring stick for interest rates on loans, bond auctions, etc. When the...

The US 10-year Treasury yield continues to trade well above a ‘fair value’ estimate, based on the average of three models maintained by CapitalSpectator.com.The market premium continues to...

By Benjamin SchroederOverall, we think the bearish sentiment can keep going in the near term. For markets, the main focus remains on the assessment of the US macro backdrop, with plenty of data this...

Even if US yields do slip into the weekend, as is quite possible, there are elements next week that will keep the bear phase element to the fore for bonds (watch core PCE carefully). The ECB simply...

Yesterday I outlined the case that several ‘fair-value’ models suggest the current US 10-year Treasury yield appears high relative to the fundamentals.As a quick follow-up, what does a...

The past few months have given investors the feeling that the 3 year (monster) rally in treasury bond yields is over.But the lull may be over. And it’s looking like bond yields (interest rates)...