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Bonds Outperform Stocks for the First Time Since April: A Sign of What's to Come?

Published 01/08/2024, 10:11 pm
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US real estate investment trusts led a widespread rally in July for the major asset classes. The only laggard: commodities, which fell last month. Otherwise, global markets rallied across the broad for the start to the third quarter, based on a set of ETF proxies.

Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE:VNQ) rose 7.9% in July, easily eclipsing the rest of the field. The rally marked the third straight monthly advance for the ETF.

Notably, foreign property shares (VNQI) posted the second-best performance last month via a 5.0% increase. Property shares on a global basis, in short, dominated July’s rally.Total Returns

US stocks (VTI) and bonds (BND) continued to rally in July. For the first time since April, fixed income outperformed equities.

Commodities GSG) posted the only decline last month for the major asset classes via a 2.9% slide.

Year to date, US shares (VTI) continue to outperform by a wide margin. The 15.7% surge in American equities so far in 2024 leaves the rest of the opportunity set in the dust in relative terms.

The Global Market Index (GMI) posted its third straight monthly gain, rising 2.3% in July. GMI is an unmanaged benchmark (maintained by CapitalSpectator.com) that holds all the major asset classes (except cash) in market-value weights via ETFs and represents a competitive benchmark for multi-asset-class portfolios. Year to date, GMI is up a strong 10.7% — exceeded only by US stocks (VTI).

GMI vs Stocks and Bonds

For the one-year window, GMI continues to reflect a middling performance relative to US stocks (VTI) and US bonds (BND).

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