James Picerno

Turmoil in the bank industry and renewed concerns of economic headwinds are driving expectations that Federal Reserve's interest-rate hiking is at or near an end. In turn, the outlook has sparked a...

Yesterday’s quarter-point rate hike by the Federal Reserve was expected. However, there’s debate about whether another round of policy tightening is wise in the wake of recent bank turmoil following...

Bond prices continued to rebound last week as investors worried that the turmoil in the banking sector could spread. Government bonds in developed markets ex-U.S. posted the strongest gain for the...

The stock market forever surprises investors, but in the realm of risk, the future’s a bit less uncertain, at least sometimes. That’s hardly a silver bullet, but it helps manage expectations,...

Government bonds recovered last week, leading the risk-off trade in global markets amid the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history on Friday. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank raised the...

Several indicators are flashing recession warnings for the U.S., but the median estimate for economic activity in the first quarter leaves room for doubt about the timing. After dipping slightly...

US recession risk is high unless it’s not. After months of conflicting signals from various business-cycle indicators, debate and disagreement reign supreme in the land of nowcasting and...

There’s no shortage of threats lurking, ranging from inflation, elevated interest rates that may go higher still, and various geopolitical threats. But market sentiment has improved recently,...

Repair and recovery were on display last week as the major asset classes clawed back some of the across-the-board losses in February. All the primary categories of global risk assets pushed higher in...

US economic activity looks strong or weak, depending on the data sets you choose to craft a narrative. That’s always true in some sense for the simple reason: there’s always some slice of...