- Losing $80,250 could accelerate Bitcoin’s drop toward $74,000.
- Fed policies and macro uncertainty outweigh U.S. crypto-friendly shifts.
- A rebound depends on reclaiming $80,000–$86,000 with strong volume.
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Bitcoin started the week with a decline, losing key support levels and extending its downtrend throughout the week. As sharp sell-offs continue across the broader crypto market today, the total market capitalization has dropped below $2.6 trillion. This pullback has erased a significant portion of the gains from the latest rally that began in November when Trump was elected U.S. President.
Are Trump’s Crypto-Friendly Moves Falling Short?
Although the Trump administration has continued to express support for the crypto sector, the high expectations and perceived insufficiency of concrete actions have hindered the trend’s momentum. Since taking office, Trump has overseen significant pro-crypto policy shifts in the U.S., with the most notable change being the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) softened stance on crypto.
The SEC has started dismissing crypto-related lawsuits without penalties and has established a crypto task force within the agency. Recently, the decision to exclude meme coins from regulatory scrutiny has been viewed as a positive step for the altcoin market. However, macroeconomic developments have overshadowed these favorable changes in recent weeks.
Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Fed Policies Weigh on Markets
Entering the new year, global economic uncertainty and the Federal Reserve’s signals that it would delay rate cuts due to inflationary pressures have kept markets in a holding pattern. However, Trump’s tariff policies have had the most significant impact on risk assets.
Trump is determined to implement tariff policies that could reshape global trade balances. This uncertainty has led investors to reduce exposure to riskier assets until the full impact of potential tariff changes becomes clear. Meanwhile, the Fed’s stance on maintaining interest rates to support the dollar’s strength, coupled with global trade concerns, has prompted investors to cut back on crypto positions.
Bitcoin’s Technical Outlook
Recent developments have triggered heavy selling in Bitcoin, as seen on the charts. Since February, Bitcoin has lost strength within its broad consolidation range. The latest breakdown came after losing the key $92,000 - $94,000 support zone.
This week, mid-term support levels have come into focus, with Bitcoin breaking below the $86,000 Fibonacci 0.382 support level on strong selling volume. Heading into the weekend, Bitcoin is testing support around $80,250 (Fibonacci 0.50). If the daily close falls below this level, the downtrend could extend to the next major support at $74,000 (Fib 0.618).
If Bitcoin fails to hold at $74,000, the next potential support zone lies between $65,000 and $70,000. To slow the decline and trigger a possible rebound, Bitcoin needs to close the week above the $80,000 mark. If this level is reclaimed, Bitcoin could consolidate in the $80,000 - $86,000 range in the coming days.
Key Support and Resistance Levels for Bitcoin
Fibonacci Support Levels:
- Fib 0.50: $80,246 (currently the most critical support level)
- Fib 0.618: $74,075
- Fib 0.786: $65,290
Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs):
- Bitcoin is trading well below short- and medium-term EMAs, indicating continued downward pressure.
- Short-term EMAs are crossing below the 3-month average, a bearish technical signal.
Stochastic RSI:
- The Stochastic RSI is currently in the oversold zone, suggesting Bitcoin is near potential bottom levels. However, it has not yet signaled a clear rebound.
- If a reversal signal emerges, a short-term relief rally could gain traction.
Bottom Line
- $80,250 is the key level to watch—if Bitcoin closes below this, the downtrend could extend toward $74,000.
- For a potential recovery, Bitcoin must break back above the $80,000 - $86,000 zone with strong volume.
- The Stochastic RSI remains oversold, but a solid bounce may require a test of lower support levels.
- EMAs continue to favor the downtrend, and as long as Bitcoin trades below the 8- and 21-day EMAs, selling pressure is likely to persist.
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Disclaimer This article is written for informational purposes only. It is not intended to encourage the purchase of assets in any way, nor does it constitute a solicitation, offer, recommendation or suggestion to invest. I would like to remind you that all assets are evaluated from multiple perspectives and are highly risky, so any investment decision and the associated risk belongs to the investor. We also do not provide any investment advisory services.