Sign up to create alerts for Instruments,
Economic Events and content by followed authors
Free Sign Up Already have an account? Sign In
Quotes
All Instrument Types
- All Instrument Types
- Indices
- Equities
- ETFs
- Funds
- Commodities
- Currencies
- Crypto
- Bonds
- Certificates
Please try another search
💎 Access the Market Tools Trusted by Thousands of Investors Get Started
Australian dollar launches as RBA hikes from here to eternity
au.investing.com/analysis/australian-dollar-launches-as-rba-hikes-from-here-to-eternity-200569085
Australian dollar launches as RBA hikes from here to eternity
By David Llewellyn-Smith | Jun 07, 2023 10:05 DXY is still firm as EUR struggles:
AUD jackknifed over the hawkish RBA:
Commodities are waiting on China:
Bug Miners too:
EM stocks are having another crack:
So is junk:
The Treasury curve flattened again:
As the AI bubble sucks ’em in:
Cash rate futures markets are pricing another RBA hike by October:
My own view is that it will take some top-tier data turning openly recessionary to prevent the central bank from hiking again in July.
TD Securities reckons August:
It was a line ball call for today rate decision but the RBA firmly showed its resolve to return inflation back to target by raising the cash rate target to 4.10%. We expected a 25bps hike today, contrary to the consensus for a hold as the upside surprise in the Apr inflation print and higher-than-expected Fair Wage Commission decision presented a strong case for the Bank to move sooner.
The RBA is cognizant of the pickup in public sector wages and the signalling effect from the recent rise in award wages. Interestingly, the Bank dropped its key sentence on “medium-term inflation expectations remains well anchored” – (this was in every MPS since Jul’22) which in our view reads hawkish. We expect another 25bps hike from the RBA though we think the Bank would prefer to move again in August after the release of official Q2 CPI and updated wage forecasts from the RBA’s staffers.
The forthcoming wage rises in the public sector and awards are a blip. Leading indicators for the jobs market are clearly wage negative.
But that is not relevant if the RBA’s reasoning for hiking is a gap between productivity and wages.
If so, it will have to hike at every meeting from here to eternity.
Related Articles
The Fed Likely to Hold Rates Steady as August PCE Shows Inflation...
By Timothy Fries - Sep 30, 2023
The PCE price index increased by 0.4% vs. an estimated 0.5% monthly. Likewise, the core PCE price index increased by 0.1% vs. an estimated 0.2%. The Fed’s decision to maintain the...
Risk-Off Odds Rise as Markets Retreat, Bond Yields Spike
By James Picerno - Sep 27, 2023
Earlier this month I wrote that there was still room for debating if a broad-based risk-off signal was brewing. Three weeks later, the space is narrowing for keeping an open mind,...
Fed's Higher for Longer Campaign: When Will the Music Stop?
By Michael Lebowitz - Sep 27, 2023
We recently wrote about why it takes time for higher interest rates to inflict economic damage. We follow that up with a discussion of something equally worrying that also lags Fed...
Australian dollar launches as RBA hikes from here to eternity
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block
Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?
By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's Investing.com's posts.
%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List
Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.
Report this comment
I feel that this comment is:
Comment flagged
Thank You!
Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Add a Comment
We encourage you to use comments to engage with users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind:
Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at Investing.com’s discretion.