Originally published by AxiTrader
The Aussie dollar is sitting at 0.7968 this morning after gaining another 0.7% in the past 24 hours against the US dollar. It's not quite so strong against the euro or the yen where it is 1.5390 (EUR/AUD) and 88.07 down 0.07% and up 0.25% respectively after the first trading day of the week.
But given the strength of the euro and the yen outright the overall Aussie dollar performance has been solid and it only seems a matter of time before the AUD/USD trades up and through 80 cents.
Indeed the initial target is around the 0.8016 as a Fibonacci extension of a previous move.
But, as I wrote in my quick look at the euro this morning, this has been a hard and fast, not to mention unrelenting, a couple of trading days of US dollar selling. And, after such a sharp move, a period of time or price consolidation could be expected.
Indeed I've highlighted the 1.2245/50 region for the euro as a key level to watch over the next 24 hours. That will be important for the Aussie as well as it will speak to this overall US dollar move.
Indeed the 35 day price correlation between the AUD/USD and EUR/USD is 0.8852.
But before I get to the short term outlook, and risks, for the AUD/USD lets recap quickly on the coalescence of the key drivers of the Aussie and to do that I want to highlight something I sent to Sam Jacobs at Business Insider yesterday.
In an email I said:
The Aussie has been strong amid the US dollar weakness with its gains being driven by what has been a solid day of gains for base metals – copper in particular which is up c1.32% from Friday's close.
Throw that in with the performance of the basic materials sector on our ASX 200 with a 1% gain and the backdrop remains positive for the Aussie. That move yesterday was consistent with the chart I used again yesterday showing the Aussie's moves against the ratio of metals and mining shares versus the MSCI World.
That ratio highlights where real money flows are headed. The fact that it has risen recently means metals and mining shares have been rising faster than the overall MSCI World stock market index.
Over the long term it still looks cheap in the current synchronised global backdrop.
Indeed the Mohamed El Erian article in the FT I referred to in Markets Morning also neatly summarised why the Aussie is being bid right now. He is really optimistic on the outlook for commodities and by extension that neatly summarised the bullishness we are seeing in the Aussie recently.
That’s the story.
This is old-fashioned commodity driven rally in the indicators of global growth of which Dr Copper and the Aussie dollar at the forefront of traders and investors minds.
For the moment anyway, because these indicators are coincident, not predictive.
Getting back to the price action then and, like the euro, the Aussie looks a little stretched on the shorter time frames.
The one hour chart already looks to have turned while the 4 hour chart is also looking toppy right now. 0.7952 looks like a level to watch on both these time frames an indication of whether a move lower could begin. 0.7940/42 is the next support below that and then it's the garden variety 38.2% retracement level of the two-day surge in AUD/USD which comes in at 0.7913.
0.7873/5 as the 61.8% retracement of the most recent move, and previous high is the big level that would signal a deeper dive if it broke.
Topside, as highlighted above, based on slightly longer timeframes suggest 0.8016 then 0.8102 and 0.8124.
Here's the 1 hour chart.
Have a great day's trading.