Cyber Monday Deal: Up to 60% off InvestingProCLAIM SALE

UPDATE 2-Wary Australian shoppers, job slowdown build case for third RBA rate cut

Published 04/07/2019, 03:39 pm
© Reuters.  UPDATE 2-Wary Australian shoppers, job slowdown build case for third RBA rate cut
WES
-
COL
-

* May retail sales +0.1% vs +0.2% consensus

* May qtr job vacancies -1.1%, first decline since 2016

* Markets expect a third rate cut from the RBA to 0.75% (Adds further comment from analyst, context on employment)

By Swati Pandey

SYDNEY, July 4 (Reuters) - Australian retail sales disappointed yet again in May and job vacancies fell from record highs, adding to signs of an underpowered economy and raising the prospect of a third rate cut this year by the nation's central bank.

Thursday's data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed retail sales rose a pedestrian 0.1% in May after falling 0.1% April, and below analysts' forecast of a 0.2% gain.

Separate data also out on the day showed the number of job vacancies - a leading indicator for labour demand - fell 1.1% in the three months to May from the previous quarter, clocking its first decline since February 2016.

The underwhelming data suggest economic growth remained weak in the June quarter, after momentum eased in the second half of 2018.

That builds the case for a third rate cut this year and piles pressure on the country's newly re-elected government of Prime Minister Scott Morrison to provide more aggressive fiscal support. decline in vacancies, along with other leading labour market indicators, suggests an imminent slowdown in employment growth," said Catherine Birch, a senior economist at Melbourne-based ANZ bank.

"Weaker jobs growth is a concern."

Financial markets 0#YIB: are pricing in a near 90% chance of a cash rate cut to 0.75% before Christmas. With another 25-basis-point easing already in the price, the local dollar AUD=D3 barely moved at $0.7037.

Australia's labour market has been a rare bright spot in the country's struggling economy and RBA Governor Philip Lowe had hoped sustained strength in employment would help push the jobless rate lower and spark wage inflation.

A pick-up is increasingly looking unlikely though, with vacancies pointing to a slowdown at a time when the jobless rate has risen to an eight-month high of 5.2% despite strong employment growth.

"Right now, it looks as though the labour market is actually becoming looser," said Callam Pickering, APAC economist at global job site Indeed.

"From a Reserve Bank perspective this data merely confirms that they were right to cut rates despite what was, at the time, a relatively solid labour market. The Reserve Bank is likely to cut again before the end of the year."

WAGE ANGST

Australia's A$1.9 trillion ($1.3 trillion) economy, which has dodged a recession since the early 1990s, has hit a soft patch in the past year pressured by a property market slump, weak consumer spending and slackening global demand.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) responded to a series of sub-par economic data by cutting rates twice since June to an all-time low 1.00%, ending a record spell of unchanged policy since August 2016.

Many analysts believe yet more stimulus is needed, including bigger infrastructure spending by the government.

The outlook does appear slightly better now with housing prices showing tentative signs of revival, the country's major banks lowering their mortgage rates and the promise of tax cuts for Australian households. 10 million middle- and low-income earners are likely to receive a rebate worth up to A$1,080 for the 2018/19 year-ended June 30. the same, the country's retailers are still in a cost-cutting mode with earnings under pressure. Australia's second-biggest grocery chain Coles Group COL.AX has unveiled a plan to reduce A$1 billion in costs over the next four years. last month, conglomerate Wesfarmers WES.AX forecast falling annual earnings at its Kmart discount department stores. ABS data showed falls in retail sales for food, department stores and clothing while household goods and eating out rebounded after declining in April.

Miserly consumer spending is a major worry for the RBA and many economists expect the current weakness to extend for some time yet.

"Without an acceleration in wages growth, we're unlikely to see momentum in consumer spending pick up," said Sarah Hunter, chief economist for BIS Oxford Economics.

($1 = 1.4203 Australian dollars)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.