As the 2024 US Presidential election approaches, analysts at Strategas suggest that the election is shaping up to be a referendum on President Biden's first term.
"Four years ago, the election was a referendum on Trump. Today, the election is a referendum on Biden," say analysts.
They explain that historically, presidents struggle with re-election when voters view the election as a judgment on their initial term. Successful re-election campaigns often frame the election as a choice between the incumbent and a less favorable challenger.
The firm notes that current public opinion surveys indicate more voters believe Trump would better handle their economic situation than Biden. This sentiment is reflected in key swing states where Trump is leading.
However, analysts argue that campaigns are dynamic, and Biden is adjusting his strategy to make the election a choice rather than a referendum.
The firm says that in an effort to shift the narrative, Biden is expected to highlight Trump's criminal conviction, arguing that it makes him unsuitable for the presidency. Additionally, they highlight Biden's recent policy moves as being part of his strategy.
"Democratic economists are issuing reports that Trump will be worse for inflation than Biden due to deficits, tariffs, politicizing the Fed, and closing the border," say analysts. "Will this work? In some cases, like the border, it might be too little, too late. In others, like inflation, is an economic study more powerful than how people feel? And with the conviction, how Trump responds may be more important than the conviction itself."
Ultimately, the effectiveness of Biden's strategy will hinge on his ability to persuade key swing voters that Trump would worsen current issues. As analysts note, "the president’s approval rating is the metric that will determine if Biden is succeeding in turning the election from a referendum to a choice with key swing voters."