European energy prices are unlikely to be affected by the expiry of a gas transit agreement supplying Russian gas through Ukrainian infrastructure, which kept Russian flows of natural gas open for the last three years despite the ongoing war between the two countries.
The final remaining buyers of Russian gas via these Soviet-era pipelines – Slovakia and Austria among them – have already arranged alternative supplies, while Hungary will continue to receive Russia gas via the TurkStream pipeline running beneath the Black Sea.
Little practical affect
Ukraine’s decision to cut off Russian gas through its pipelines is largely a symbolic one.
While some 35% of the European gas market was once serviced by Russia that market share has fallen to just 8%, from 65 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas per year to just 14 bcm in the first 11 months of 2024.
The exception is the breakaway pro-Russian region of Transdniestria, part of Ukraine’s neighbour Moldova, which was still reliant on the transit flows.
The unrecognised country – with a population of about 465,800 people – has cut off heating and hot water supplies to households, with local energy companies urging residents to dress warmly and insulate their houses with blankets and thick curtains.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the end of the gas transit agreement was “one of Moscow's biggest defeats” on the Telegram messaging app, urging the US to increase supplies.
"The more there is on the market from Europe's real partners, the faster we will overcome the last negative consequences of European energy dependence on Russia," he wrote.
He said Europe’s "joint task" would now be to support Moldova "in this period of energy transformation".
The European Commission said the EU would be largely unaffected by the cut-off.
"The European gas infrastructure is flexible enough to provide gas of non-Russian origin," a spokesperson for the Commission said.
"It has been reinforced with significant new LNG (liquefied natural gas) import capacities since 2022."