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UBS: Macro backdrop is favorable for quality bonds

Published 08/03/2024, 02:56 am
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UBS analysts said in a research note on Thursday that the current macro backdrop is favorable for "quality bonds."

The bank points out that while the ascent in US equities to all-time highs has grabbed headlines recently, US Treasuries have also rallied over the past two weeks.

"The 10-year yield has fallen around 20 basis points to 4.1% as of the close of Wednesday, the lowest level in a month. This came as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated a rate cut is likely appropriate 'at some point this year' during his semiannual monetary policy testimony before Congress," explained UBS.

With the path towards rate cuts this year uncertain and rate volatility expected in the near term, UBS believes several recent indicators have continued to point to a macro backdrop that is favorable for quality bonds.

"So, with Fed rate cuts remaining on the horizon this year, we maintain our preference for quality bonds, which offer an attractive risk-reward proposition in our view," declared the bank.

They expect the 10-year yield to fall to 3.5% by December and think investors "should consider taking advantage of actively managed fixed income strategies."

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