Treasury bond prices are falling this morning, while treasury yields have soared following today's Consumer Price Index report.
The report showed that both headline and core prices rose 0.4% month-on-month in March, adding doubts to the idea that the pickup in inflation in January and February was just a blip.
"The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield soared about 14 basis points this morning to 4.49% from 4.35% earlier," stated RBC. "As of yesterday's close, Treasuries are down 0.83% month to date, while today's price action may add to those losses."
Fed funds futures market data currently reflects about a 20% chance of the first cut arriving by June, with two cuts fully priced for the year 2024.
Later today, markets will receive the Fed's March meeting minutes, which may provide more details as to policymakers' thinking around dialing back projections for rate cuts in 2025," said RBC.
"Fed speakers have recently pushed back on the idea of multiple rate cuts this year, so any hawkishness coming out of the minutes may help add more context to today's CPI report by the end of the trading day," analysts added. "We'll also be looking for any insight around timing for the Fed to slow its quantitative tightening campaign, as Fed Chair Powell noted that the process could begin fairly soon in his post-meeting press conference last month."