Australian shares are anticipated to start on a weaker note on this de facto public holiday for the nation, mirroring the subdued movements on Wall Street.
ASX futures pointed to a decline of 14 points, equivalent to 0.2%, settling at 6,990 early this morning.
Cash rate move a safe bet
All eyes are fixed not just on a horse race, but also on the outcome of today's Reserve Bank meeting, which is shaping up to be far more of a safe bet than the Melbourne Cup.
Expectations are leaning towards a quarter-point increment in the cash rate target, which would raise it to 4.35%.
Meanwhile, Wall Street displayed a mixed performance, with the Dow edging up by 0.1%, the S&P 500 showing a 0.2% increase and the Nasdaq gaining 0.3%.
In the wake of robust gains the previous week, US stocks saw incremental advances as investors meticulously analysed the latest earnings reports and economic indicators.
Last week, major indices surged on the optimistic belief that the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle is approaching its conclusion.
During this trading session, the US dollar exhibited a modest strengthening alongside Treasury yields, while oil prices received a slight boost. This came as Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed their intentions to extend production cuts until the year's end.
The information technology and healthcare sectors shone as top performers, demonstrating strength in this market session. Conversely, real estate and energy sectors experienced declines of more than 1%.
This is how IG senior market analyst Tony Sycamore sees things unfolding today in the aftermath of the RBA’s meeting:
“Ahead of this afternoon's RBA board meeting, the rates market is assigning a 53% probability of a 25bp rate hike from the RBA to 4.35%.
“Given the political debate around whether Q3 inflation data represented a “material” change, it will be a close call. For the record, we expect the RBA to raise rates today by 25bp to 4.35%.
“Last week's close above 6,950 negated the technical damage following October's sell-off. If the ASX200 can close above 7,000 after today's RBA board meeting, it will provide a platform for the ASX200 to test the 200-day moving average at 7,200, with scope to range highs at 7,400.”
Commodities
The price of WTI Crude Oil has shown an upward trajectory, currently standing at $80.92, representing a 0.51% increase.
This upward movement is attributed to the official confirmation of Saudi and Russian decisions to extend production cuts throughout the remainder of the year.
Gold's market performance has taken a downward turn, with the current price at $1,980, a decline of 0.61%, in response to the overnight surge in US yields.
Sycamore’s view is that as long as gold maintains its position above the 200-day moving average at $1,933 the recent drop from its recent peak of $2,009 should be interpreted as a correction rather than a definitive reversal towards a lower trajectory.
What’s happening in small caps?
The S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries closed at 2,668.64 yesterday, shedding 4.14% on the previous day.
Making news this morning, which you can read more about throughout the day with Proactive: