Santos Ltd is trading down today after reporting weaker-than-expected results amid the sector-wide impact of oil price declines.
The company had lost nearly 5% to $7.43 at 3pm.
Santos reported sales revenue of US$2.711 billion, EBITDAX of US$1.846 billion, an underlying profit of US$654 million and strong free cash flow from operations amounting to US$1.068 billion. The company also declared a record interim dividend of US13.0 cents per share (unfranked).
In its report, managing director and CEO Kevin Gallagher put a positive spin on earnings, highlighting the company's robust cash returns and attributing this success to Santos' high-performance culture, disciplined low-cost operating model and a consistent focus on safe and reliable operations.
"Today’s results demonstrate the capability of Santos to generate strong cash flow from operations, deliver significant progress on major projects and deliver competitive, reliable shareholder returns.
"The disciplined low-cost operating model underpins our business and we continue to manage our cost base to be resilient through all scenarios and price cycles."
Key projects moving forward
Gallagher provided updates on key projects, noting that the Moomba carbon capture and storage (CCS) phase one is in the final stages of commissioning with Barossa expected to come online within the next year and Pikka in the first half of 2026.
Meanwhile, the base business continues to deliver record reliability, with significant achievements in PNG, Queensland and Western Australia.
Regarding the Moomba CCS project, Gallagher said, "Phase one of the Moomba CCS project is in advanced commissioning with the pipeline being pressured up and CO2 to be introduced into the system imminently. The project remains on track for first injection and ramp-up to full capacity this year."
Moomba CCS will be one of the lowest-cost CCS projects globally, capable of permanently storing up to 1.7 million tonnes of carbon dioxide annually.
Barossa nearing completion
The Barossa Gas Project, which is nearly 80% complete, is expected to see first gas in the third quarter of 2025. Barossa is expected to add around 1.8 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) to Santos’ expanding LNG portfolio.
The Pikka Project is nearly 60% complete, with first oil expected in the first half of 2026.
Santos says it is committed to decarbonisation through initiatives like Moomba CCS and the development of low-carbon fuels.
Guidance for 2024 remains unchanged.
Below expectations
While the company was talking up its results, Citi wasn’t so sure.
Core profit of US$654 million fell short by 5% against consensus estimates and was "well below" Citi's expectations of US$801 million.
Despite this, Citi is maintaining a neutral rating on Santos and favours the oil and gas producer over other pure-play exploration and production (E&P) companies such as Woodside and Beach Petroleum.
"Santos is improving the quality of its cash flows and is on the verge of rapidly reducing debt while also increasing distributions," Citi analysts James Byrne and Tom Wallington commented.
"The trajectory of asset quality is markedly different from Woodside and Beach Petroleum, where we observe continued degradation of portfolio quality and both companies being locked into mergers and acquisitions with questionable returns."
Citi did highlight several risks to its investment case and its target price of A$8. These include potential delays to the Barossa project, performance issues with the Papua New Guinea Liquefied Natural Gas (PNG LNG) project, deferrals at the Narrabri Coal Seam Gas (CSG) and Dorado projects, oil price volatility, and uncertainty regarding potential government intervention in its Gladstone Liquefied Natural Gas (GLNG) project, which may compel it to prioritise gas for domestic customers.
Adding to Santos' challenges, overnight declines in oil prices have further impacted the company, with benchmark Brent crude now hovering around US$77 per barrel.