China’s floundering economy and stock market have opened a void in international trading, a space India’s burgeoning economy is more than ready to fill.
In a global environment of headwinds and downward pressure on profits, Indian stock indices the Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex achieved their second-best showing in six years in 2023 – the Nifty and Sensex both surged 20%, matching or outperforming other major markets.
The gains are due to a mix of factors – India’s overall economic growth has been comparatively strong, drawing demand from foreign investors, especially given optimism around the upcoming general elections.
The surging market has drawn flocks of new companies as initial public offering hopefuls, with sixty-six companies filing listing documents according to brokerage IIFL.
Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group – one of the largest independent financial advisory and asset management organisations – has urged investors to exercise caution.
China’s woe, India’s boon
“The country’s resilient economic performance has positioned it as one of the fastest-growing economies globally, drawing the attention of foreign investors seeking high returns,” Green said.
“India’s appeal has been further amplified by concerns over China’s economic stability and geopolitical tensions with the West.”
Green says these tensions are leading to an influx of more than $20 billion into Indian stocks compared to $8 billion into Chinese equities in 2023, as reported by Société Générale.
Bullish sentiment in markets comes with its own pitfalls as investors rush to snap up emerging shares that may be more hype than hale in nature.
“As investors eagerly partake in the IPO rush, some are growing wary of the underwhelming post-listing performances, raising questions about the sustainability of the market’s exuberance,” Green said.
“It becomes imperative for investors to exercise due diligence and distinguish between the hype-driven opportunities and those backed by sound fundamentals.”
Short-term outlook highly positive
Despite misgivings with over-enthusiastic IPO listings, Green points out the country’s strong economic fundamentals and optimistic growth estimates are likely to fuel the IPO market at least for the next year.
“The resilience of India’s economy, coupled with supportive government policies and a thriving digital transformation, provides a solid foundation for businesses seeking public offerings,” Green explained.
“However, even amid the positive outlook, investors must be cautious not to be swayed solely by the prevailing momentum.”
Green says the Indian IPO landscape represents fertile ground for investors, but insists due diligence is more necessary than ever.
“The fervour demands a cautious and judicious approach,” he said, “Investors need to sidestep the hype, critically assess valuations, and differentiate between opportunities grounded in fundamentals and those fuelled by speculative exuberance.”