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GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks and forex ride out Turkey shock

Published 22/03/2021, 10:39 pm
© Reuters.
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* Turkish lira skids as Erdogan dumps central banker

* Bond yields down, equity moves mostly modest so far

* Oil prices slip anew, after steep slide last week

* Global currencies vs dollar https://tmsnrt.rs/2PmYOcE

By Wayne Cole and Lawrence White

SYDNEY/LONDON, March 22 (Reuters) - The fallout from Turkey's latest market drama appeared contained on Monday, as stocks recovered from President Tayyip Erdogan's shock replacing of a hawkish central bank governor with a critic of high interest rates.

An index of Europe's 600 largest stocks .STOXX hovered either side of flat by 1058 GMT, erasing earlier losses. Euro zone government bond yields fell slightly and other emerging- market currencies largely avoided contagion.

Erdogan's move most affected domestic assets. The lira fell 15% TRYTOM=D3 to 8.485 against the dollar, its worst plunge since the last Turkish crisis of 2018, before the currency recovered on calming words from Finance Minister Lutfi Elvan. 1058 GMT, the currency traded at 7.950 after Elvan said Turkey would stick to free-market rules, damping down fears of currency controls. sovereign bond yields soared above 18%, hitting a 22-month high.

Meanwhile, euro zone banks exposed to the country such as Spain's BBVA BBVA.MC , Italy's UniCredit CRDI.MI , France's BNP Paribas BNPP.PA , and Dutch bank ING INGA.AS fell between 1.6% and 5.2%.

The MSCI emerging-market currency index .MIEM00000CUS was down about 0.1%, with such high-yielding currencies as the South African rand ZAR= and the Mexican peso MXN= down about 0.8% and 1.4%, respectively. ripples were more modest elsewhere. U.S. stock futures ESc1 were up while yields on 10-year Treasury notes US10YT=RR edged down five basis points to 1.68%, suggesting some investors favoured safe havens.

Investors are still struggling to deal with the recent surge in U.S. bond yields, which has left equity valuations for some sectors, particularly tech, looking stretched.

Bonds had another wobble on Friday when the Federal Reserve decided not to extend a capital concession for banks, which could lessen their demand for Treasuries. damage was limited, however, by the Fed's promise to work on the rules to prevent strains in the financial system.

A host of Fed officials speak this week, including three appearances by Chair Jerome Powell, providing plenty of opportunity for more volatility in markets.

WATCHING EMERGING MARKETS

Monday's tumble in the lira saw the yen strengthen, with notable gains on the euro EURJPY= and Australian dollar AUDJPY= .

After an initial slip, the dollar steadied at 108.80 yen JPY= . The dollar index was down slightly at 91.942 =USD .

Also supporting the yen were concern that Japanese retail investors who have built long lira positions, a popular trade for the yield-hungry sector, might be squeezed out and trigger another round of lira selling.

Still, analysts at Citi doubted that the episode would lead to widespread pressure on emerging markets, noting the last time the lira slid in 2020, there was little spillover.

"In terms of impact on other parts of the high-yielding EM, we believe that will be quite limited," Citi said in a note.

There was scant sign of safe-haven demand for gold, which eased 0.65% to $1,734 an ounce XAU= .

Oil prices teetered on renewed concerns that European coronavirus lockdowns could slow any recovery in demand for fuel products. O/R

Brent crude LCOc1 was down 13 cents, or 0.2%, at $64.4 a barrel by 1103 GMT>. U.S. oil CLc1 recovered some earlier losses to rise 24 cents to $61.28, after both contracts had fallen by more than 6% last week.

<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Asia stock markets

https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4 Turkey sovereign bond yields

https://tmsnrt.rs/3lE84WP

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