Fortescue (ASX:FMG) Ltd (ASX: FMG) shares have experienced significant volatility in 2024, with the mining company's share price down 26% year-to-date, closing at $21.66 on Friday. The latest developments, including a structural simplification and a pivot away from green hydrogen, have sparked discussions among investors and analysts.
Strategic Changes and Job Cuts
Six years ago, Fortescue embarked on an ambitious plan to transition to green energy, investing in research for green hydrogen and ammonia. However, a recent announcement revealed that the company would reduce its focus on hydrogen, slashing up to 700 jobs and scaling back its hydrogen initiatives. Instead, Fortescue will concentrate on generating renewable electricity, merging its mining and energy divisions into a single business unit. This shift reflects the growing recognition of the complexities and costs associated with green hydrogen production and may impact ASX mining stocks involved in similar transitions.
Industry and Analyst Reactions
Tony Wood, energy policy director at the Grattan Institute, highlighted the challenges facing green hydrogen. He noted the higher-than-expected difficulties and costs involved in its production and the limited willingness of customers to pay a premium for cleaner fuel. Wood expressed skepticism about whether subsidies would be sufficient to advance green hydrogen projects.
Fortescue's green energy division has reported over $2.1 billion in losses over the past four years, underscoring the financial strain of its green hydrogen ambitions. Analysts have been vocal about the implications of these developments. Saul Kavonic remarked on the apparent failure of Fortescue Future Industries, criticizing the company's prolonged investment in green hydrogen despite mounting challenges.
In contrast, some analysts see a silver lining in Fortescue's refocused strategy. The narrowing and slowing of its green hydrogen push is viewed positively, with an emphasis on capital discipline. One analyst even increased the target price for Fortescue shares by 16% to $14.50, though the overall rating remains cautious. This shift in strategy is expected to renew investor interest, particularly from Australian institutional funds, due to an improved cash-flow profile.
Future Outlook
Fortescue shares are under the spotlight following the company's latest updates on green hydrogen and renewable electricity. As the company navigates its strategic shift, the market's reaction and the potential impact on Fortescue's valuation will be closely watched.
Investors are advised to conduct thorough due diligence before making any investment decisions, considering the cyclical nature of Fortescue's business and the ongoing developments in its green energy initiatives.