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FIVE at FIVE AU: Market dips as RBA minutes show cautious approach to rate hikes

Published 19/09/2023, 03:58 pm
© Reuters.  FIVE at FIVE AU: Market dips as RBA minutes show cautious approach to rate hikes
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The ASX dipped today as expected.

The S&P/ASX200 dropped 30.40 points or 0.42% to 7,200.00, crossing below its 200-day moving average. Over the last five days, the index is virtually unchanged but is currently 4.86% below its 52-week high.

Bottom-performing stocks in this index are Weebit Nano Ltd (ASX:WBT) and Chalice Mining Ltd (ASX:CHN, OTCQB:CGMLF)., down 8.62% and 4.63% respectively.

Only Energy was in the green up 0.25%, while Materials was the main drag losing 0.75%.

The volatility of the market of late is reflected in superannuation returns for August.

Chant West data shows the median growth fund was down 0.1% over the month. Funds are still tracking better than the market: Australian shares fell 0.8% in August, while international shares fell 1.8%.

Labour market tight, but weakening

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its September minutes, noting easing labour market conditions.

The RBA stated: "The easing in labour market conditions had reflected both an easing in growth in labour demand (following slower growth in economic activity) and strong growth in labour supply.

"Firms in the bank’s liaison program had reported an improvement in labour availability but that finding suitable workers continued to be more difficult than prior to the pandemic."

The unemployment rate dipped slightly from its low of 3.5% in June to 3.7% in August.

Wages growth remains steady and was so ahead of the implementation of higher minimum wages decided by the Fair Work Commission.

"The liaison measure of private sector wages growth was around 4% in the September quarter to date, although it was too soon to assess the overall effect of the FWC wage decision on wages growth overall," the RBA said.

Despite solid wage numbers and decreasing inflation, another rate hike isn't yet off the table.

eToro market analyst Josh Gilbert said, "Today’s RBA’s minutes showed that the RBA was deliberating over hiking rates again at the start of this month but felt the case for keeping rates on hold was stronger.

“Inflation locally has continued to see significant declines since peaking in January of this year, thanks to the RBA’s most extensive hiking cycle for decades. These hikes are clearly having their desired effect in moving inflation in the right direction, which is why the RBA paused again in September.

“The rationale behind the RBA continuing to consider another hike is that the board does not want to declare victory or wave the chequered flag just yet. The current benchmark rate is lower than that of major global economies, which has already put the Aussie dollar under pressure - and the idea of closing the door would represent more potential downsides than benefits for the AUD.

“The bottom line is that the RBA has left the door open for more hikes, and the minutes support this – but the data suggests that the board is likely to stay on hold unless the incoming data turns around. For now, we enter a new era with Michelle Bullock at the helm but the good news for investors is that change alone shouldn’t bring along any major surprises."

On raising rates, the RBA stated: "This could occur if productivity growth does not pick up as anticipated or if high services price inflation is more persistent than expected.

"Members noted that the recent rise in petrol prices – an important input for households’ inflation expectations – highlighted that the process of returning inflation to target could be uneven."

The good news is inflation is likely to return to target.

"The recent flow of data was consistent with inflation returning to target within a reasonable timeframe while the cash rate remained at its present level," the RBA said.

"Members recognised the value of allowing more time to see the full effects of the tightening of monetary policy since May 2022, given the lags in the transmission of policy through the economy."

Five at five

The S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO) is down 0.36%, reflecting the losses of the broader market.

There has been some good news for small cap stocks today.

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Strickland Metals Ltd (ASX:STK) is trading higher on making a new gold discovery at its 100%-owned Horse Well prospect at the Yandal Gold Project in Western Australia with a high-grade result of 31 metres grading 5.6 g/t gold from 72 metres, including 8 metres at 17.7 g/t.

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Stellar Resources confirms high-grade polymetallic discovery at North Scamander in Tasmania; shares up

Stellar Resources Ltd (ASX:SRZ) is trading higher after making a new high-grade polymetallic discovery during maiden drilling of a diamond hole at its North Scamander Project in northeast Tasmania.

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Lithium Universe’s Iggy Tan puts in motion strategy to revolutionise Canada's lithium industry

Slightly more than a month after orchestrating the return of Lithium Universe Ltd to the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX), its chairman and lithium visionary Iggy Tan has painted a bold vision for the company and for the Quebec region of Canada.

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HyTerra moves toward drilling its first natural hydrogen well on Nemaha Ridge

HyTerra Ltd (ASX:HYT) is moving closer to drilling its first well on its leases on the Nemaha Ridge, a natural hydrogen play fairway in Kansas, USA, with general approval of a drill site granted and well drilling plans nearing completion.

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Magmatic Resources mobilises diamond drill rig to Myall Project in a bid to expand copper resource

Magmatic Resources Ltd (ASX:MAG) has kicked off more focused diamond drilling at its 100%-owned Myall Project, some 60 kilometres north along strike of the Northparkes Mine owned by China Molybdenum/Sumitomo.

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On your six

Bowen dismisses small modular nuclear reactors as a viable option

This week Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen rejected the proposition of replacing Australia's coal-fired power plants with small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs), saying the cost – A$387 billion – was too great to taxpayers.

Read more

The one to watch

Lanthanein Resources talks outstanding REE results at Murraydium

Lanthanein Resources Ltd (ASX:LNR, OTC:FRNRF) technical director Brian Thomas tells Proactive the company has received strong assay results from a roadside drilling program at the Murraydium Rare Earth Elements (REE) Project in southeast South Australia.

Watch

Read more on Proactive Investors AU

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