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FIVE at FIVE AU: Is Medibank hack a buying opportunity? Should government intervene on energy prices?

Published 08/11/2022, 04:30 pm
Updated 08/11/2022, 05:00 pm
© Reuters.  FIVE at FIVE AU: Is Medibank hack a buying opportunity? Should government intervene on energy prices?
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The ASX was higher today.

S&P/ASX200 gained 0.36% on lower-than-normal volume. Nine out of 11 sectors were higher, led by Utilities which rallied by 1.38%.

Over the last five days, the index is virtually unchanged but is down 6.51% for the last year to date.

The top-performing stocks in this index were Pilbara Minerals up 5.00% and Mineral Resources up 4.78%.

Looking at other sectors, Consumer Staples was another strong performer up 1.30%, while Energy slipped 2.27%.

Making news today

Is Medibank a buying opportunity?

The heat on Medibank Private continues unabated after hackers said they would start publishing stolen customer data online in 24 hours.

The hackers were responding to Medibank’s refusal to pay any ransom for the stolen data, saying “you can’t trust a criminal”.

That’s a fair enough response considering there’s no evidence the hackers would stop any criminal behaviour if they were paid.

“Customers should remain vigilant. We knew the publication of data online by the criminal could be a possibility but the criminal’s threat is still a distressing development for our customers," Medibank CEO David Koczkar said.

“We unreservedly apologise to our customers.

"We take seriously our responsibility to safeguard our customers and support them.

"The weaponisation of their private information is malicious and it is an attack on the most vulnerable members of our community."

Medibank is working with the Australian Government, including the Australian Cyber Security Centre and the Australian Federal Police, and anyone who is a victim of cybercrime should report it to the Australian Cyber Security Centre website.

While Medibank shares have fallen since the breach, it could be a buying opportunity according to Stake market analyst Eliot Hastie.

“Medibank has had a challenging couple of weeks as news of the data breach has taken hold. The company halted trading on October 13, and when it restarted on the 26th, the stock fell by 18%. It’s currently trading down by 19% YTD.

“Stake customers have seen this as a buying opportunity, with a 1,426% increase in buys last month, suggesting that many are still positive about Medibank’s long-term outlook.

"In fact, Medibank saw the biggest change from sales to buys of all Australian stocks in October when compared to September. In the past 24 hours, buys have continued to outpace sales but since hackers have threatened to release Medibank customer data, bears are picking up some momentum.

“Cyber security incidents often cause an instant hard shock to a share price but strong companies have generally been able to recover over the long term. That said, there’s no way of knowing the true consequences of Medibank’s current breach.

"There has been a suggestion of a class action lawsuit, which could affect the share price over a longer period, but this situation is still developing, and its impact is yet to be seen.”

Medibank shares were 1.77% lower at $2.78 on Tuesday.

Treasury supports energy intervention

Dr Steven Kennedy PSM, secretary to the Australian Treasury, is backing direct intervention in the energy market.

With energy prices continuing to rise putting major pressure on households, the secretary said intervention was justified with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggering super profits for some energy companies.

“The current gas and thermal coal price increases are leading to unusually high prices and profits for some companies; prices and profits well beyond the usual bounds of investment and profit cycles,” Kennedy said.

“The same price increases are leading to a reduction in the real incomes of many people, with the most severely affected being lower-income working households. The energy price increases are also significantly reducing the profits of many businesses and raising questions about their viability.

“Policy responses could take many forms but in the current circumstances of generalised price pressures, they need to be mindful of not contributing further to inflation.

“This would suggest to us that interventions that directly address the higher domestic thermal coal and gas prices are more likely to be optimal.

“Australia is uniquely placed to pursue this type of intervention given it is a net exporter of energy.

“I would add that as the shock to Australia varies by state and territory reflecting their individual energy policies, any response should also take this into account.”

It is no surprise Santos Ltd (ASX:STO) CEO Kevin Gallagher has a contrary take. Santos will be one of those companies hit by intervention.

Gallagher has not blamed the invasion but resource nationalism and price inflation.

"There are conversations of fear that I never expected to see in my lifetime and in Australia they are the consequence of more than a decade of energy policy failure that quite frankly I've been warning about for many years," Gallagher told investors.

"They're also the consequence of domestic climate wars much more than they are a consequence of Russia's invasion of Ukraine."

"Climate wars have left us without a carbon price or the right market signals for energy and decarbonisation investments. The high oil and gas prices that we're seeing today were emerging before the war in Ukraine."

Gallagher sees a tipping point coming in energy policy.

"Energy policy globally and in Australia is at a very dangerous tipping point. Producers in the western world have slowed or stopped investing in new oil and gas, but customers have not stopped buying or consuming these products because they can't," Gallagher said.

"The low emissions technologies and clean energy infrastructure required to deliver them is simply not yet available.

“And government policies that seek to disrupt the energy system so as to hasten the transition to a low carbon future are having exactly the opposite effect."

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