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FIVE at FIVE AU: Fed widely expected to relax monetary policy as ASX rises

Published 13/12/2023, 04:03 pm
© Reuters.  FIVE at FIVE AU: Fed widely expected to relax monetary policy as ASX rises
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The ASX 200 was up today, gaining 23.80 points or 0.33% to 7,259.10 and setting a new 50-day high.

Over the last five days, the index has gained 1.24% and is currently 3.97% off its 52-week high.

Health Care was the sector that led the charge, up 1.32%, buoyed by strong performer Neuren Pharmaceuticals Ltd, which was up 7.02%. Materials (0.22%) and Real Estate (0.77%) were also in the green.

On the other side of the ledger were Energy stocks, down 0.75%, and Communication Services, slipping 0.41%.

The good showing here followed positivity on Wall Street after Treasury secretary Janet Yellen said yesterday that in her opinion inflation was ‘meaningfully’ off the boil, and that now it was less of a concern she expected that the job of easing pricing pressures was almost at an end.

"I see no reason, on the path that we're currently on, why inflation shouldn't gradually decline to levels consistent" with the Federal Reserve's 2% target, Yellen said at the Wall Street Journal's CEO Council Summit. The economy continues to operate a "roughly full employment," she said.

IG analyst Tony Sycamore had these observations to make:

“US stock markets closed higher overnight following an inline inflation report ahead of tomorrow's Fed meeting.

"Within the details of the inflation report, headline inflation rose by 0.1% MoM (slightly higher than the 0% expected), still allowing the annual rate to ease to 3.1% from 3.2%. Core inflation rose by 0.3% MoM, which saw the annual rate remain unchanged at 4%.

“Attention now turns to tomorrow's Fed meeting. The Fed is expected to keep the Federal Funds target rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.50%.

"As such, interest will focus on whether the statement includes a tightening bias like last month's 'In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2% over time'. As well as the summary of economic projections (SEP or Dots).

"While it is challenging to assess consensus expectations if the 'dots' show two to three rate cuts in 2024, it will confirm markets remain on the right track, positioning for rate cuts next year.

“Although we remain bullish on the Nasdaq into year-end, we are not contemplating opening fresh longs at these levels. Instead, we would prefer to wait for a corrective pullback and signs of basing as an opportunity to reset longs before a push towards 16,400/500 in the weeks ahead.

“Aware that should the Nasdaq see a sustained break of support at 15,200, it would warn that the rally has run its course and that a deeper pullback is underway towards the 200-day moving average at 14,430.”

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