The ASX made little progress today, peaking at 7,363 points before sliding back to 7,613.70 for a 1.20-point gain throughout the day.
Trading has been fairly subdued on the market due to comments from US Fed chair Powell overnight, which signalled that US markets would have some time yet to wait before interest rate cuts begin.
Oil and gas companies were the heroes of the day, making strong gains and buoying the utilities sector to a 2.77% gain, the only sector to make any real progress today.
Origin Energy gained 2.61%, while AGL Energy (ASX:AGL) (ASX:AGK) added 6.13% to its stock price.
Information Tech and Consumer Discretionary also notched minor increases, adding 0.51% and 0.63% respectively, while Energy was the biggest red mark, shedding 0.46%.
Materials (-0.39%) and Health Care (-0.36%) also made their marks.
Woodstock Energy fell 1.14%, BHP (ASX:BHP) 1.27% and Sonic Healthcare 1.51%.
Commodities also took a downward turn, although they’ve had strong progress over the last month or so.
Everything bar gold (+0.18%) fell, none more so than copper and palladium, both down about 2%. The remaining base metals dropped between 1.27% and 1.78% and precious metals between 0.84% and 1.39%.
Despite today’s damper, analysts are predicting a handful of commodities will make strong progress in the short term, especially if the US Fed’s reticence proves exaggerated.
Commodity stocks in a tailwind trifecta
Australian commodity stocks are likely to enjoy tailwinds from multiple sources in the near future as commodities benefit from geopolitical conflict and impacted supply chains.
The commodities to keep an eye on are iron ore, copper, gold, lithium and oil, according to moomoo market strategist Jessica Amir.
“One of the macro influences of Australia’s commodities is the optimism on rate cuts,” Amir writes.
“The European Central Bank (ECB) has pencilled in a rate cut in June and the market still is holding out for two Fed rate cuts this year.
“We have also seen increases in industrial output due to the rising demand for data centres and chips.
“The demand for EVs at the consumer and manufacturer level has also been up with countries like China demanding more resources to build infrastructure to support this growth.”
Amir points to rising tension in the Middle East and fresh Russian sanctions as the direct causes for rising commodity prices, with gold, in particular, also benefiting from its 'safe-haven' reputation during a period of high economic and political uncertainty.
“The Iron ore price rose 13% last week to US$111 per tonne, its highest level since February and is now up 16% from its 2024 low on an improved Chinese demand outlook as iron ore imports and steel exports rise,” Amir writes.
“Copper rose 0.5% last week to US$4.23 per pound, its highest in 22 months (since June 2022) and its price is now up 40% from its 2022 lows, as investors position for an uplift in industrial activity and potential interest rate cuts in the coming months.
“Copper demand is increasing amid rising demand for chips, data centres, EVs and NEVs and infrastructure.
“The precious metals price rose 0.6% last week to $2,344 per ounce; as risk of broader Middle Eastern conflict drove buying in safe-haven buying.
“The lithium prices remain volatile but are holding up off their lows. The Fastmarkets Spodumene +2.1% to US$1,200 per tonne whilst Platts Spodumene - 4.3% to US$1,100 per tonne.”
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