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FIVE at FIVE AU: ASX rises as business confidence surges, conditions drop

Published 09/07/2024, 04:03 pm
Updated 09/07/2024, 04:30 pm
© Reuters.  FIVE at FIVE AU: ASX rises as business confidence surges, conditions drop
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The Australian share market lifted on Tuesday on light volume, contrasting with a subdued day of trading on Wall Street, which ended with a mixed finish for the major stock indexes and several market milestones.

The S&P/ASX200 gained 65.20 points or 0.84% to 7,828.40, crossing above its 20-day moving average.

Over the last five days, the index has gained 1.43% and is currently 1.04% off of its 52-week high.

The top-performing stocks in this index are Judo Capital Holdings Ltd and Insignia Financial Ltd, up 12.95%and 6.81% respectively.

Other winners included ANZ Group Holdings Ltd which gained 1.74% after announcing that Queensland had amended its legislation to allow for its acquisition of Suncorp.

“We’re excited about the opportunities Queensland presents for ANZ and our customers – including by tapping into the state’s growing tech sector and skilled workforce,” said ANZ chief Shayne Elliott.

“Over a five-year period we will hire or place 700 people into our new major tech hub in Brisbane, bringing new career opportunities for Queenslanders.”

All of the big four banks were higher.

Telstra Group Ltd was another winner up 2.47% after announcing a hike in its mobile phone price plans. The changes will see prices on most Telstra mobile plans increase by between $2-$4 per month.

Looking at the sectors, all traded higher today. The biggest winner was Communication Services, which gained 1.54%. Financials was 1.20% higher.

As for small caps, the S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries gained 0.37% to 2,992.90. Over the past five trading days, it is 1.47% higher.

Consumer and business sentiment

Business confidence surged last month but business conditions continued to fall, and price and cost measures reversed last month’s rise.

Business conditions fell by 2 points to 4 index points, which are now clearly below the long-run average. This decline was driven by falls in employment and profitability, while trading conditions were broadly unchanged.

The NAB Monthly Business Survey highlights a continued long-term decline in business conditions, reflecting the slowing economy through late 2023 and early 2024. A sharp fall in the jobs index was particularly notable, indicating significant challenges in employment within the business sector.

CreditorWatch chief economist Anneke Thompson said, “Both the NAB Monthly Business Survey and Westpac Consumer Sentiment Survey overall point to a continuing slowing economy, despite some mixed reads in the various data sets. On the consumer side, sentiment fell over the month by 1.1% and continues to be well below the long-run average.

“Interestingly, despite tax cuts beginning on July 1, the ‘family finances vs a year ago’ and ‘family finances over next 12 months’ series both fell, and quite significantly. This is because a majority (just under 60%) of consumers now expect an interest rate increase.

"On the business side, conditions continued to ease while confidence improved.

"These two results are difficult to reconcile, however. may be explained by businesses reporting easing in labour costs, purchase and final product prices, but continued high-capacity utilisation.

"While the indicators are subtle, these results broadly point to businesses still being busy, but demand starting to cool.

“Overall, the RBA will likely get a sense of relief at these results, as they need sentiment to remain weak and consumers to keep their wallets shut in order to nudge that sticky inflation number down.

"They will also be relieved that the labour force still appears strong, albeit with some heat coming out of it.

"While these are just two data sets in a broad array of data that is released monthly, neither points to an economy heating up again, and inflation being pushed higher, which would be a worst-case scenario for the RBA.

“CreditorWatch’s BRI data for May 2024 provides real-time data that backs these sentiment measures. Trade payment defaults are at record highs, and insolvency and business failure rates continue to move higher, especially in those industries that rely on discretionary spending.”

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