The ASX is higher today.
The S&P/ASX200 62.20 points or 0.84% to 7,488.60. setting a new 100-day high. Over the last five days, the index has gained 3.50%and is currently 1.05% off of its 52-week high.
Top-performing stocks in this index were Liontown Resources (ASX:LTR) Ltd and Neuren Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX:NEU), up 10.92% and 7.43% respectively.
Looking at the sectors, all were higher with Utilities leading the way up 1.83%. Real Estate, Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary and Energy gained 1.13%, 1.03%, 1.03% and 1.09% respectively.
On the small cap front, the S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO) gained 0.70% to 2,890.60 and over the five days is up 4.42%.
RBA minutes suggest rate rise
While the Reserve Bank of Australia left rates on hold at 4.35% this month, it has hinted in today’s minutes that further hikes could be on the way.
“Members agreed that whether further tightening of monetary policy is required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe will depend on how the incoming data alter the economic outlook and the evolving assessment of risks,” the minutes said.
The details of the minutes run counter to what analysts are saying, particularly with the US Federal Reserve suggesting it is at the end of its tightening cycle.
Markets are factoring a one-in-four chance the RBA will cut the cash rate to 4.1% at its March 19, 2024 meeting – the second for the year, while traders have priced a rate cut by June 2024.
The RBA’s direction is likely to be determined by December quarter inflation figures, due on January 31.
The cash rate remained unchanged in December as high interest rates looked to cool the economy.
“Members acknowledged that consumption growth had been quite weak, as many households are experiencing a painful squeeze on their finances, with inflation and higher interest rates weighing on real disposable incomes,” the minutes said.
Capital Economics analyst Abhijit Surya predicts the RBA to start cutting rates as early as May 2024 due to sharer than expected inflation falls.
“It seems to be the case that the RBA is increasingly concerned about the health of the domestic economy,” Surya said.
“It noted that household consumption was subdued in aggregate terms and falling outright in per capita terms. It also highlighted the fact that timely indicators pointed to a further weakening of consumer spending in the December quarter.”
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