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FIVE at FIVE AU: ASX gains; uncertainty around next RBA rate move

Published 03/05/2024, 04:02 pm
© Reuters.  FIVE at FIVE AU: ASX gains; uncertainty around next RBA rate move
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The ASX is around half a percent higher in afternoon trade, with all eleven sectors in the green. Consumer Discretionary and Real Estate sectors have been today’s strongest performers, with Tech and Real Estate the best performers for the week.

While it's been a positive day of trading on Friday, the benchmark index is set to close down around 0.73% for the week.

Interest rate uncertainty

Former Reserve Bank governor and now Macquarie chair, Glenn Stevens, says global inflation challenge remains for markets and that the path to low inflation is not yet secure, although it has been moving in the right direction.

Stevens said, “What we really need to see is low inflation is secure. We're on the path back there, it’s been going the right direction, but I'd say low inflation is probably not yet quite secure. And when it is secure I think that will give a lot more certainty to the interest rate outlook and markets”.

Meanwhile, Westpac chief economist Luci Ellis believes a RBA rate hike is unlikely. Dr Ellis, a former RBA assistant governor, says rate cuts expectations have been pushed out following the surprising March quarter inflation data, noting that further upside is possible in the June quarter.

She said, "While the RBA is, quite properly, not ruling anything in or out, the case for raising rates in response to every upside surprise is weak."

"The RBA is on hold until inflation falls further. A scenario necessitating a rate hike is not impossible, but it is unlikely, and it would only take shape later in the year.”

HSBC does still expect the RBA to keep interest rates on hold this year, and flags a risk of a rate hike or that rates remain higher for even longer given the surprise first quarter inflation data.

Despite the uncertain outlook for interest rates, the ABS reports that the value of new home loans has risen by almost 18% since a year ago, as average loan sizes increase as house prices rise.

The value of new home loans rose 3.1% in March, leading to a 17.9% rise since March 2023.

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