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FIVE at FIVE AU: ASX extends gains; bond yields fall; China's recovery hits hurdle

Published 09/11/2023, 04:04 pm
Updated 09/11/2023, 04:30 pm
© Reuters FIVE at FIVE AU: ASX extends gains; bond yields fall; China's recovery hits hurdle
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The ASX extended its gains for a second day, with the benchmark ASX 200 ending the day up 0.26% which brought weekly gains to 2.56%.

The Healthcare sector led the gains, rising 1.2%, with CSL gaining more than 2.1% and Cochlear and Sonic Healthcare were also positive. Financials were also strong, including the big banks with the exception of Westpac which traded ex-dividend.

Tech stocks, however, were out of favour, with the sector losing 4.9%. Xero finished more than 13% lower on strong volume after its half year. While its headline results were positive, the stock was sold off on concerns about future growth potential.

The Energy sector also retreated in response to a lower oil price.

Bond yields retract

Australian bond yields have slumped to three-week lows following the RBA decision to lift the cash rate to 4.35% on Tuesday and amid speculation the central bank is done raising rates in the near term and will instead start cutting rates late next year.

After hitting a decade-high of 5% last week, the 10-year government bond rate fell to 4.5% and the 3-year to 4.2%.

The markets are pricing in just a 6% chance of a rate in December, rising to 41% by next June, and a one-in-three chance of a cut by the end of next.

China recovery hits hurdle

China inflation data released today showed that CPI fell 0.2% in October year-on-year, while PPI data fell 2.6% on the year — broadly in line with expectations.

Beijing has intensified its efforts to bolster its economy, recently issuing 1 trillion yuan ($199 billion) in sovereign bonds. The government is also permitting local authorities to advance a portion of their 2024 bond quotas.

Yet the path to economic recovery remains complex. Challenges, such as the ongoing property sector crisis, escalating local debt concerns and differing policy approaches compared to Western nations, continue to pose significant headwinds.

eToro market analyst Josh Gilbert commented on China’s economic recovery, saying:

"China’s economic recovery hit another hurdle today, with the economy slipping back into deflation as CPI fell 0.2% year-over-year.

“The recent stimulus measures being rolled out are a step in the right direction but are clearly not doing enough to lift demand, giving policymakers another headache.

“There is an opportunity for China to entice consumers to spend on its upcoming singles day on November 11. Sales are expected to be muted but it comes at an opportune time, given the need to see consumers opening their wallets.

“A drop in food prices – particularly pork prices, had a significant impact on the overall reading but broader consumer goods also showed declines.

“I believe we have seen the worst for the Chinese economy in this current cycle, but its recovery will take time to move into full swing.

"These challenges may be something investors simply have to accept in the months ahead as it won’t be all one way.

"China has committed to ensuring it doesn’t see a further growth slowdown, so more support from Beijing in the form of additional stimulus measures may be on the cards."

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