In a note to clients this week, analysts at BTIG looked ahead to potential April trades, assessing Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) vs. Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU) and stating they are bullish on Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN).
Looking at current volumes, BTIG said they remain light. Yesterday's SPY volume was 48.5 million shares, 30% below the 15-day average and the lowest full-day volume since August 2023.
"Today is on pace for just 42m shares. While we can probably expect volume to pickup into month/ quarter-end, it's notable that the next meaningful piece of data (PCE) comes out Friday when all markets are closed. Therefore, we may need to wait until Monday to get a sense of the next big moves," explained the firm.
Analysts note that on the long side, April tends to be quite bullish for utilities (XLU), averaging a 2.15% gain and higher 80% of the time over the last 20 years.
However, while April also tends to be bullish for the SPX, it has been quite weak for semiconductors (SMH) of late. "Since SMH began trading in 2011, it has been negative in April 8 of 12 years, for an average return of -0.36%," added the firm.
When it comes to Amazon in April, the firm said that since 2000, April is the stock's best month, averaging +9.87% gain and up 18 vs. down 5 times.
"The chart has been consolidating in the area of its 2020-2021 highs (180-190)," they said. "Clearing that range should open the door well north of 200, in our view."