The stable of what we describe as base metals is incredibly diverse, so it’s natural that as individual commodities their fortunes are mixed in the current moment.
But one thing that unites them all is their utility to modern industry. Copper, aluminium, zinc, nickel and lead are indispensable to global economic activity, with applications that range from infrastructure, transportation, technology and renewable energy.
Copper, the bellwether metal, is a reliable gauge of economic health due to its extensive use in construction and electrical networks.
Aluminium's lightweight and corrosion-resistant properties make it essential in aerospace, automotive and packaging sectors, while zinc protects steel through galvanisation.
Nickel is increasingly in demand for batteries, particularly in the electric vehicle (EV) revolution, while lead remains a staple in batteries and radiation shielding.
Highly cyclical
Because of their centrality to growth, base metals are highly cyclical.
In times of expansion, demand for these materials surges as industries ramp up production and infrastructure projects multiply.
This drives prices higher, attracting investors seeking exposure to growth trends. Conversely, during economic downturns, industrial activity slows, leading to weaker demand and declining prices.
As a result, base metals markets often experience pronounced volatility, reflecting shifts in investor sentiment and broader macroeconomic trends, including exchange rate movements and energy costs.
In 2025, the base metals market faces a challenging start, with prices on the London Metal Exchange trending lower due to seasonal factors, a resurgent US dollar and lingering geopolitical uncertainties.
But analysts point to an inflection point on the horizon. Potential US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and economic stimulus in China could provide much-needed liquidity, boosting demand and stabilising prices.
The energy transition continues to reshape the landscape for base metals. Copper and nickel are expected to lead the pack, driven by expanding EV adoption, renewable energy projects and grid modernisation efforts.
Supply constraints coupled with increasing demand from green technologies, create a favourable outlook for these metals. Meanwhile, aluminium demand is likely to benefit from the ongoing push for lightweight and sustainable materials in transportation and construction.
In contrast, lead and zinc face more subdued growth prospects. Lead demand is constrained by the gradual shift away from traditional lead-acid batteries, while zinc's fortunes are tied closely to the steel industry, which remains vulnerable to economic slowdowns.
While uncertainties linger, the long-term outlook remains robust – because the need for continued infrastructure development, technological advancements and the global energy transition is hardly slowing.
Magnetite Mines
The flagship Razorback Iron Ore Project of Magnetite Mines Ltd (ASX:MGT) in South Australia’s Braemar region has positioned the company as a key Australian player in the transition to low-carbon steelmaking.
Razorback is one of the few globally scalable projects capable of meeting growing demand for low-carbon steelmaking inputs.
In 2024 the company bolstered its prospects for developing the large-scale, high-grade iron ore resource. It submitted a Mining Lease Proposal to the South Australian Department for Energy and Mining, a big step toward securing regulatory approvals for the project's Final Investment Decision.
During the year, the company forged strategic partnerships, signing a non-binding Heads of Agreement with JFE Shoji Australia, a subsidiary of Japan’s second-largest steelmaker, JFE Steel. This goes a long way to securing funding for the definitive feasibility study by making Razorback a preferred supplier of DR-grade iron ore concentrates for decarbonising steel production.
Laboratory breakthroughs further showcased Razorback’s potential, with tests demonstrating the feasibility of producing premium-grade magnetite concentrates using saline water, which could significantly lower water costs and enhance the project’s sustainability credentials.
Magnetite Mines also engaged with the South Australian Government’s ‘Green Iron Opportunity (SO:FTCE11B) Expression of Interest’ process and Federal consultations on green steel and alumina.
FireFly Metals
In 2024, FireFly Metals Ltd (ASX:FFM) delivered its most impressive drill results yet at the Ming Mine, part of its Green Bay Project in Canada, which the company is developing as a world-class copper-gold deposit. It struck a standout intersection of 86.3 metres at 3.7% copper equivalent (CuEq) in one drill hole.
The findings pointed to the project’s strong mineralisation, which features high-grade volcanogenic massive sulphide (VMS) zones and underlying copper-rich footwall stringer zones (FWZ).
The company is planning a resource update to support its strategy of expanding the current resource of 59 million tonnes at 2% CuEq.
Key assays from the latest drilling highlight the robust nature of Ming’s mineralisation. Drill hole MUG24-079 not only intersected 15.5 metres at 4.6% CuEq and 9.9 metres at 5.8% CuEq in the VMS lodes but also encountered a 27.6-metre high-grade FWZ core at 5.3% CuEq.
Similarly, hole MUG24-073 returned a 76.3-metre interval at 2.9% CuEq, featuring a 20.1-metre VMS intersection at 6.1% CuEq. These results underline the continuity of mineralisation across both VMS and FWZ zones, a critical factor in the project’s scalability.
With these strong drill results and continued exploration success, Firefly Metals is well-positioned to advance the Ming Mine as a cornerstone asset for the company.
Cyclone Metals
In 2024, Cyclone Metals Ltd (ASX:CLE) proved the potential of its 100%-owned Iron Bear Iron Ore Project in Canada’s Labrador Trough to supply the growing global demand for premium Direct Reduction (DR) pellets used in low-carbon steelmaking.
The company successfully conducted a pilot production run at the COREM facility in Quebec City. The DR pellets produced demonstrated exceptional physical and metallisation properties, with compression strength exceeding industry standards and a metallisation ratio reaching 99.1%.
Field geological surveys conducted in July and August added to Cyclone’s momentum, identifying extensive magnetite outcrops beyond the current resource area.
Rock chip samples from these outcrops are undergoing mineralogical testing to guide future exploration priorities.
Complementing these efforts, the company transported 18 tonnes of drill core samples to Quebec for Phase 4 metallurgical test work.
The program will refine concentrate parameters, produce bulk samples for steel mill evaluation and support discussions on potential offtake agreements, particularly with European steelmakers navigating stringent carbon reduction policies under the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).
The Iron Bear Project is strategically positioned near infrastructure, including a heavy-haul railway and hydropower facilities, offering cost efficiencies and connectivity to global markets.
Cyclone plans to leverage these advantages by establishing a joint venture or securing Tier 1 offtake agreements to advance the project toward a Decision to Mine.
Cyprium Metals
In November of 2024, Cyprium Metals Ltd (ASX:CYM, OTC:CYPMF) released a comprehensive pre-feasibility study (PFS) for the Nifty Copper Complex in Western Australia, confirming its economic viability as a large-scale copper producer.
The study set out a dual approach: refurbishing and expanding the existing brownfield concentrator for the production of copper concentrate and re-treating heap leach pads for initial cathode production.
Nifty is set to take its place as a cornerstone of Australia’s copper industry, with a combined ore reserve of 797,000 tonnes of contained copper.
The PFS outlines compelling economics, projecting life-of-mine (LOM) production of 718,000 tonnes of copper, with an average of 37,300 tonnes per annum over the first decade. With gross revenues of A$9.2 billion and a pre-tax net present value (NPV) of A$1.13 billion, the project is expected to generate substantial returns.
The low capital expenditure of A$46 million for the initial cathode project underscores the strategic advantage of leveraging existing infrastructure.
Executive chair Matt Fifield said Nifty was a “large and important copper source and economic engine for Australia”.
With all major permits in place, Nifty benefits from being a permitted brownfield site with access to Western Australia’s well-established supply chain. The project stands out as one of the few near-term copper development opportunities offering scale, longevity, and positive economics.
Leeuwin Metals
Leeuwin Metals Ltd (ASX:LM1) has a diversified portfolio of projects across Western Australia and Canada, targeting nickel, copper, platinum group elements (PGE), lithium and iron ore.
In Western Australia, the company’s West Pilbara Iron Ore Project is an expansion of its iron footprint in that region, with promising results from ongoing exploration activities confirming its potential as a significant Channel Iron Deposit (CID) target near world-class infrastructure and established mining operations.
In November 2024, Leeuwin announced additional results from the second phase of rock chip sampling at the West Pilbara Project. These assays revealed iron grades exceeding 50% iron across a 2.4-kilometre strike length, an expansion from the 1.7-kilometre footprint previously identified.
Strong assays include results such as 54.66% iron and 53.05% iron, indicating a well-mineralised system with high-grade potential.
The project is strategically located, just 13 kilometres north of Rio Tinto’s Mesa A mine and in proximity to robust infrastructure, including sealed highways and export ports at Ashburton and Port Hedland.
The company is progressing third-party agreements necessary for tenement grant, anticipated in early 2025.
Plans on the horizon include additional mapping, sampling and prioritisation of drilling targets to further delineate the mineralisation.