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Autodesk dips on soft outlook; analysts focused on upcoming Investor Day

Published 25/02/2023, 12:16 am
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By Senad Karaahmetovic

Autodesk (NASDAQ:ADSK) reported better-than-expected results for the fourth quarter but a soft outlook pushed shares into the red.

The company reported EPS of $1.86 on revenue of $1.32 billion, beating the consensus for earnings of $1.81 per share on sales of $1.31B. Billings rose 28% year-over-year to $2.12B, crushing the average analyst estimate of $1.93B. The 8.2% jump in subscription revenues helped the total sales increase by 8.8% YoY.

Shares trade 5% lower in pre-open Friday.

"Overall, the demand environment in Q4 remained consistent with Q3 with the approaching transition from up-front to annual billings for multi-year contracts, and a large renewal cohort, providing a tailwind to billings and free cash flow," said Debbie Clifford, Autodesk CFO.

At the midpoint of its guidance, the company sees FQ1 EPS of $1.53 on revenue of $1.2675B. Analysts were expecting earnings of $1.64 per share on sales of $1.27B.

For the full year of 2024, Autodesk sees EPS of $7.15 (up or down 17c), missing the consensus of $7.31. Revenue is seen in the range of $5.355-5.455B, again below expectations for revenue of $5.46B. Full-year billings are expected in the range of $5.03-5.18B, below the average analyst estimate of $5.34B.

Stifel analysts said investors’ focus was on the “long-awaited FY24 guidance,” with the focus now shifting to the upcoming Investor Day (March 22).

“WNet/net, given the slightly weaker-than-consensus guidance along with outperformance this year (ADSK +18% vs. Nasdaq +11%), we are not surprised to see shares modestly trade-off in AH. While we acknowledge macro-uncertainty, we believe Autodesk has a number of drivers to sustain double-digit top-line growth and op-margin/FCF expansion in coming years,” they said in a note.

MoffettNathanson analyst added:

“All the key guidance points are now on the table and that leaves the upcoming Analyst Day to just focus on the details or underpinnings of the guide.”

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