New research from online investment platform InvestMarkets has revealed that about 76% of Australian investors believe the ASX will underperform, or at best equal, the performance of global markets.
The survey asked a few hundred investors including wholesale, retail and fund managers their opinion on the ASX compared to other markets.
43% said they expected the ASX to be beaten, while 33% said it would perform generally in line with other markets.
Investors are also overall bullish, with 51% saying they felt positive about the trajectory of global markets this year, 39% expressing a neutral opinion and 10% taking a pessimistic view.
Fund managers are even more optimistic – 61% were positive, 27% neutral and just 8% negative.
Overall positive outlook for 2024
“Our data shows that investors and fund managers are reasonably bullish about the year ahead,” InvestmentMarkets CEO Angelina Wu said.
“There’s also a broad belief that there will be a gradual reduction in interest rates during 2024, presumably with an expectation that inflation is starting to be gradually controlled.
“This suggests there might be a gradual growing reluctance to hold cash in favour of accepting volatility in return for the long-term upsides expected from the markets.”
Investors and fund managers were also of a similar mind on interest rate cuts.
About 39% of investors and 42% of fund managers are expecting rates to fall from 4.35% to 3-4% by the end of the year, while 40% of investors and 52% of fund managers expect it will hold between 4-5%.
“The element of uncertainty that plagued the market in 2023 is also starting to dissipate. Interestingly, and contrary to some analysts, there seems to be a belief that the Australian markets will underperform global markets this year,” Wu concluded.