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ASX moves above 20-day average; higher yields make rate hike more likely

Published 18/10/2023, 04:15 pm
ASX moves above 20-day average; higher yields make rate hike more likely

The ASX has lifted today, gaining 13.40 points or 0.19% to 7,069.50 and crossing above its 20-day moving average.

The sectors didn't have much to show for it except for marginal gains for Healthcare, Financials, Consumer Staples and Materials and a 2.44% uptick for Energy.

Information Tech (-0.70%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.62%) and Utilities (-1.09%) weighed on the other side of the scale for the ASX200, keeping upward momentum leashed.

Commodities had a good day in contrast, with platinum adding 1.33% and nickel, copper, lead, tin and zinc all up for the day.

Silver, gold, palladium and aluminium dipped alongside West Texas crude, which shed 0.76% but is still up 1.27% for the last week.

The best-performing stocks on the ASX200 today were miners.

Whitehaven Coal (ASX:WHC) Ltd jumped 12.67% today after BHP (ASX:BHP) announced it would sell its coking coal mines to Whitehaven for $3.2 billion. You can read more about that here.

Genesis Minerals (ASX:ASX:GMD) Ltd gained a more modest 6.29% today, perhaps benefiting from a stronger gold price over the last week, which saw spot prices rise from A$2,904.9 per ounce to A$3,023.32 per ounce.

Higher yields point to possible rate hike

Capital.com senior financial market analyst Kyle Rodda explains the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on oil and gold, higher yields lift the chance of an interest rate hike next month, and Chinese economic data beats forecasts.

“The markets are in a cautious mood,” Rodda writes.

“Nerves are rattling because of the ongoing prospect of an Israel ground invasion of the Gaza Strip, which, at the margins, could be more likely today after Arab leaders cancelled meetings with US President Joe Biden.

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“Gold and oil prices are higher and remain the obvious barometers of market sentiment regarding the conflict. Equities are lower across the region.”

“Higher yields are also a headwind to stock valuations,” Rodda continued.

“Last night's hot US Retail Sales data amplified the chorus calling “higher for longer” policy settings, with traders also shifting the probabilities of another Fed hike by December to above 40%.

“The Australian 10-year yield has followed Treasury yields higher, leaping 10 points today to close in on fresh 12-year highs.

“The odds of another RBA hike have also increased to 70% since yesterday’s RBA minutes, with a fireside chat by Governor Michelle Bullock reaffirming the central bank’s wariness about stubborn inflation.

“Her tone appears to be priming the market for another potential hike in November if tomorrow’s jobs data and, more importantly, next week’s CPI data come in on the strong side.

(Source: ASX)

“The AUD/USD has pushed higher as rate hike expectations rise, with an extra boost courtesy of better-than-expected Chinese data today.

“The monthly partials broadly exceeded forecasts, with GDP lifting 4.9%, well above the 4.5% forecast. The data points to further green shoots in China’s economy.

“However, the market impact was relatively contained, with the focus remaining on financial stability and the property sector.

“China’s property stocks hit their lowest since 2009 as property developer Country Garden tiptoes toward default on a Dollar bond following a 30-day grace period.

“The markets will shift focus to UK CPI in early European trade tonight.

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“Economists forecast that Core CPI slipped to 6% last month, following the unexpected dive in price growth a month earlier, which completely shook-up Bank of England policy expectations.

“Interest rate markets only imply slim odds of further BOE hikes from here. The diverging outlook for monetary policy has fuelled the GBP/USD’s downtrend.

“Given the market's skew towards no further hikes from the BOE, the most significant move in the Pound could come in the event of an upside surprise.

“Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) will also report tonight after Wall Street’s closing bell.

“The results will probably be about prices and margins, with analysts expecting a drop in gross margins for the quarter owing to price cuts executed by the EV-maker to defend market share in the increasingly competitive EV market.

“Earnings growth is also forecast to go in reverse, despite a modest lift in revenues forecast, as the company battles higher costs and production disruptions.”

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