By James Regan
SYDNEY, Sept 23 (Reuters) - Metallurgical coal prices were headed for the first decline in almost two months as demand from Asian steel mills outside of China has declined though Chinese demand - the foundation for the commodity's rise - remains intact, sources said on Friday.
Two cargoes of high-quality met coal sold for $190-195 per tonne FOB Australia on Thursday against spot prices of around $206 a tonne, according to two sources with knowledge of the transactions who did not want to be named, marking the first daily and weekly drop since early August.
The last time coal prices breached $200 a tonne was 2012, when flooding cut off a third of the world's supply from Australia's Bowen Basin collieries. In January, the spot price stood at about $75 per tonne.
"At these levels, the price looks toppy," said ANZ commodities strategist Daniel Hynes. "It will be difficult to maintain prices over $200 over the next two months, but the likelihood of falling back to much weaker levels is low."
Hynes noted that key mines in Shanxi province, accounting for 35 percent of total coking coal production in China, were struggling to move coal to the steelmaking provinces of Hebei and Shandong due to recent flooding.
At the same time, in Australia, the world's top exporter of metallurgical coal, heavy rains since July continue to crimp supply, according to traders.
Also, a strike at the Anglo American (LON:AAL) AAL. - owned German Creek mine, now in its fifth week, was further reducing supply to seaborne markets.
An Anglo American spokeswoman said the 6-million-tonnes-per-year colliery was operating at reduced production levels since mid-August and that the company was attempting to reach a settlement with the Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union.
Shaw and Partners analyst Peter O'Connor said demand for imported metallurgical coal remains high in China owing to the constraints on domestic supply, although demand from steel mills outside China had slowed, adding to downward price pressure.
The supply uncertainties were dragging out fourth-quarter 2016 benchmark contract price negotiations, with proposals ranging from sub-$150 to $180 a tonne, he said.
"We would not be surprised to see a protracted settlement given the huge spread between the third quarter benchmark price of $92.50 a tonne and current spot prices of $200 a tonne," he said.