中国强劲的动力煤进口需求将令印尼煤炭开采企业于近期受益

(The following statement was released by the rating agency) Fitch Ratings-Shanghai/Singapore-01 February 2021: 本文章英文原文最初于2021年1月28日发布于：Strong Chinese Thermal Coal Imports to Benefit Indonesian Miners in the Near Term (https://www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/10150986) 惠誉评级指出，由于需求坚挺，国内供应商产能利用率高企，且煤炭价格处于很高水平，2月中旬春节前中国动力煤进口量可能保持强劲。中国是印尼动力煤第一大进口国，这令印尼煤炭开采企业受益；该现象的助推因素还在于中国与其第二大煤炭供应国澳大利亚之间紧张的政治局势。 由于中国政府放松煤炭进口限制来缓解国内供应紧张局面，2020年12月中国煤炭进口量从一年前的277万吨激增至3,908万吨，而此轮中国的供应紧张主要是因为今冬出现罕见的严寒天气、经济活动复苏、内蒙古煤炭生产许可证审查以及对澳大利亚煤炭进口限制。2020年中国的煤炭进口量增长1.4%至3.04亿吨，为2014年以来最高水平。2020年11月和12月中国火力发电量同比增速分别为6.6%和9.2%。 2020年中国煤炭产量同比下降0.1%。虽然中国政府在10月调整相关政策来提振冬季到来前的煤炭产量，但2020年内蒙古（2019年中国最大产煤省）的煤炭产量仍同比下滑3%。2020年12月内蒙古煤炭产量同比增长9%，创下9,780万吨的新高。此外，政府已于2021年1月要求全体煤炭生产企业在确保安全的前提下按最大能力组织煤炭生产。 惠誉预计，随着气温回升及煤炭生产趋于正常，春节后中国的煤炭需求和进口将走弱。英国商品研究所（CRU）的船舶数据分析显示， 2021年1月前两周中国的动力煤进口量已接近2020年12月的70%。CRU指出，2021年1月26日纽卡斯尔港5,500大卡/千克煤炭海运FOB价涨至62美元/吨，为两年来新高；中国进口5,500大卡/千克动力煤CFR中国港价格为85美元/吨，远低于国内秦皇岛5,500大卡/千克煤炭FOB价（131美元/吨）。但鉴于全球各地都在推动实现碳中和，惠誉对煤炭价格长期走势不乐观。 CRU指出，华北地区新冠肺炎疫情反弹下，政府收紧抗疫措施可能拖慢从华中向环渤海港口补库存的速度，推动对海运煤的需求上升。部分城市已要求货车司机出示抵达前几天内的新冠病毒检测阴性报告。但鉴于地方政府最大程度地降低疫情防控措施对经济活动的影响的能力日益增强，惠誉预计2020年初的物流中断现象不会重演。 此外，短期内区域性供需失衡可能令煤炭价格持续上涨。重庆市政府日前要求于2021年6月底前永久性关闭地方煤矿，包括淘汰重庆市能源投资集团有限公司（BBB/稳定）的1,150万吨产能。此举可能导致西南地区煤炭供应吃紧。 印尼煤炭开采企业为中国强劲煤炭进口需求下的最大受益者。2021年1月印尼4,200大卡/千克煤炭指数从截至2020年11月七个月期间26美元/吨的均价涨至45美元/吨。但煤价飙升可能是短暂现象——尽管惠誉预计2021年煤炭均价将为32.5美元/吨，高于2020年的水平。 惠誉还预计，2021年第一季度大部分印尼煤炭生产企业将增产以应对上升的需求和煤价——这些煤企下属成本较高的煤矿已在2020年下半年减产或停产。但是，由于印尼主要产煤区加里曼丹省部分地区遭遇暴雨洪水，部分印尼煤炭开采企业的增产计划可能受阻。 联系人： 黄筱婷 董事，企业评级 +86 21 6898 7979 惠誉（北京）信用评级有限公司上海分公司 中国上海市浦东新区陆家嘴环路479号 上海中心大厦34层3401室，邮编200120 Shahim Zubair 董事，企业评级 +65 6796 7243 Media Relations: Leslie Tan, Singapore, Tel: +65 6796 7234, Email: leslie.tan@thefitchgroup.com Wai Lun Wan, Hong Kong, Tel: +852 2263 9935, Email: wailun.wan@thefitchgroup.com 详情参见www.fitchratings.com 注意：本新闻稿为中文译本。如有疑问，请以英文版本为准。 ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. 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