(The following statement was released by the rating agency) Link to Fitch Ratings' Report(s): APAC Banks: Implications of Fed Tightening https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/10029196 Fitch Ratings-Bangkok/Hong Kong/Singapore-May 23: 本文章英文原文最初于2018年5月17日发布于：Fitch: US Fed Hikes should be Manageable for Asia-Pacific Banks /a 惠誉评级在今日发布的一份特别报告中表示，未来几年，大多数亚太地区银行可以平稳应对逐步明确的美国货币紧缩政策，但由于该政策将带来潜在的市场、信用和流动性风险，那些 对海外资金和外债水平依赖程度更高的市场将承受更大压力。 惠誉的基准预测是，联邦基金利率将于2019年末上调至3.25%，但并不排除其间市场预期可能会出现突然变化。此举将在美元利率、汇率变动和当地利率三个方面影响亚太地 区银行，相应地，也会为银行业带来市场、信贷和流动性风险。
大部分银行体系面对一定的市场风险（尽管程度似乎有限）。在发达市场中，作为金融枢纽的香港和新加坡外汇风险较高，并且也可能因为投资者情绪变化导致市场波动而受到影响。 而新兴市场银行中，蒙古和斯里兰卡承受压力的能力较弱，由于其外汇负债水平高企，且宏观经济疲软可能引发连锁效应。 美国的高利率也可能刺激当地利率上涨，这很可能会影响大多数市场的信贷风险。美元加息将在何种程度上影响当地利率尚不明确，但在新兴市场银行体系中，中国和越南由于缓冲措 施有限，较容易受到高利率的冲击。此外，鉴于资产质量及证券持有量带来的市场风险，当地利率升高也会为印度带来负面影响。 正如前几次全球流动性收紧和金融危机期间所发生的那样，一旦美国利率上升引发资本外逃到安全区域，新兴市场也会面临流动性风险。当中的尾部风险依然存在不可知性，如亚太地 区银行业所面临市场压力（包括大规模资本外流及境外市场融资困难）的严重程度可能会远远高于我们目前的预期。 值得注意的是，在2004-2006年的上一次美联储加息周期（目标利率从1.00%升至5.25%）中，亚太地区的银行业表现坚挺，这主要得益于彼时的良性环境（资产质 量改善、利润率提升及资本充足率提高）。自此之后，大部分亚太银行体系提高了杠杆比率，部分国家的提升程度显著。尽管如此，随着巴塞尔协议III的采用，宏观审慎政策措施 的日益广泛使用及“终局”规则（例如清盘制度）的引入，监管环境也日趋严格。 惠誉在其特别报告“亚太地区银行：美联储紧缩措施的影响”中评估了措施带来的影响，用户可以访问上述链接阅读报告内容。 联系人： Parson Singha 金融机构评级高级董事 +66 2108 0151 惠誉评级(泰国) 有限公司 Park Ventures, Level 17 57 Wireless Road, Lumpini, Patumwan 曼谷 10330 Ambreesh Srivastava 金融机构评级高级董事 +65 6796 7218 Sabine Bauer 金融机构评级高级董事 +852 2263 9966 Tim Roche 金融机构评级高级董事 +61 2 8256 0310 Jonathan Cornish 亚太区银行业务主管 +852 2263 9901 Justin Patrie, 特许金融分析师 惠誉快讯 +1 646 582 4964 Media Relations: Leslie Tan, Singapore, Tel: +65 67 96 7234, Email: leslie.tan@fitchratings.com; Wai-Lun Wan, Hong Kong, Tel: +852 2263 9935, Email: wailun.wan@fitchratings.com. 详情请参见 www.fitchratings.com 注意：本新闻稿为中文译本。如有疑问，请以英文版本为准。 Related Research Fitch 2018 Outlook: Asia-Pacific Banks https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/907004 ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. 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