Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election in November could lead to a rise in the rates of long-term U.S. Treasury yields, according to Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management strategists.
The former US president is reportedly planning to impose tariffs on imports, including but not limited to imposing up to at least 60% on the import of goods from China. Such import tariffs, which if the White House decides to pass on to the US consumers, could result in a hike in prices, eventually fueling inflation.
At the same time, Trump’s immigration plans, which primarily focus on deporting criminals, but will also aim to push millions of immigrants to move back to their respective countries, will put pressure on the US labor market and the wider economy, according to strategists.
"Even if the environment is bullish in fixed income...the long end of the U.S. yield curve is less bullish in our view due to the U.S. political risk premium," Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management strategists were quoted as saying by Reuters.
A rise in the bond rates could result in the fall of equities, which has been the case historically as investors are likely to invest in safe-haven assets.
Trump and President Joe Biden are set to be contesting against each other for the 2024 Presidential elections in 2024. The former has gained a sizeable lead after the two candidates debated late last month.
Following the debate, ten-year U.S. Treasury yields surged to over three-week highs, nearing 4.5%, driven by increasing market anticipation of a potential Trump victory, according to analysts.
"When the odds of Trump being elected got higher suddenly, the risk pricing from the markets was immediate," said Jacques Aurelien Marcireau, co-head of equities at Edmond de Rothschild.