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UPDATE 1-NZ dlr bounces after RBNZ cuts rates, Australian dlr down

Published 23/07/2015, 12:37 pm
© Reuters. UPDATE 1-NZ dlr bounces after RBNZ cuts rates, Australian dlr down

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By Naomi Tajitsu and Cecile Lefort

WELLINGTON, July 24 (Reuters) - The New Zealand dollar jumped to a one-week high on Thursday after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) delivered a smaller interest rate cut than some had wagered on, while the Australian dollar was pressured by weakness in commodity prices.

The kiwi NZD=D4 climbed more than half a U.S. cent to a peak of $0.6654, after the central bank cut its cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.0 percent in response to a dimmer economic outlook and lower inflation. ID:nL3N1030WA

The kiwi rallied against the Aussie, which fell to NZ$1.1130 AUDNZD=R , and gained nearly 1 percent on the yen NZDJPY=R .

"The RBNZ delivered a 25 basis point rate cut, although disappointed those positioned for a 'surprise' more aggressive 50 basis point cut," said Annette Beacher, chief Asia-Pac macro strategist at TD Securities in Singapore.

It was last at $0.6617, up 0.7 percent on the day and moving away from a six-year low of $0.6498 touched last week.

Resistance was seen above $0.6650, while offers were suspected around $0.6700.

Some analysts, however, predict the bounce is temporary with more rate cuts seen on the horizon.

"The currency will definitely go lower over time but it's just that the market's got some extremely massive speculative positions in it and the risk is that they get cleared out somewhat before we go lower again," said Tim Kelleher, head of institutional FX sales at ASB bank in Auckland.

Markets are pricing in roughly two more rate cuts in New Zealand in the next 12 months, which could push the kiwi down to around $0.6200 in coming months.

Longer-dated New Zealand government bonds 0#NZTSY= rose, pushing the yield on 2027 debt 2 basis points lower. Yields on short-dated notes rose as much as 2.5 basis points as the curve flattened a touch.

In contrast, the Australian dollar was nursing losses at $0.7367 AUD=D4 , having retreated from a peak of $0.7440 on Wednesday as upbeat U.S. economic data reinforced expectations of higher rates from the Federal Reserve.

The Aussie was pulling closer to a six-year through of $0.7328 touched last week, with immediate support found at $0.7360.

Weighing was ongoing weakness in commodity prices with iron ore .IO62-CNI=SI , Australia's top export earner, slipping nearly 3 percent.

The Aussie derived no comfort in an encouraging corporate survey which found that Australian businesses were in a better mood last quarter, while confidence had turned positive for all sectors outside mining. ID:nS9N0ZF00P

The Aussie remained near its lowest since 2009 against the pound which rose to A$2.1167 GBPAUD=R on rising speculation of higher interest rates from the Bank of England. ID:nL5N1021QN

Australian government bond futures rose, with the three-year bond contract YTTc1 up 1 tick at 98.020. The 10-year contract YTCc1 added 4 ticks to 97.100, leading to a bullish flattening of the curve. (Editing by Eric Meijer)

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