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FOREX-U.S. dollar rises as caution reigns ahead of key central bank meetings

Published 16/03/2021, 02:03 am
© Reuters.
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* Focus on central bank meetings this week

* Dollar index gains for 3rd day

* Dollar up vs yen, hits highest since June

* Bitcoin comes off highs hit over weekend

(Adds new comment, bullets, FX table, updates prices, changes byline, dateline; previous LONDON)

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss

NEW YORK, March 15 (Reuters) - The dollar gained for a third straight session on Monday, as traders cut their bearish bets on the greenback to four-month lows amid the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields and grew cautious ahead of key global central bank meetings.

The Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan are all set to meet this week and will likely set the tone as to where global rates are headed.

U.S. Treasury yields, however, were lower on Monday in line with Europe, ahead of these central bank gatherings. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields US10YT=RR traded as high at 1.639% on Monday, close to Friday's top of 1.6420%, a level last seen in February 2020.

Gains in the greenback were more pronounced against low-yielding currencies such as the euro EUR= and the British pound GBP=D3 while high-yielding currencies like the Australian dollar AUD=D3 fared relatively better.

"The U.S. dollar has been one of the best-performing G10 currencies in recent weeks reflecting a shift in expectations regarding Fed interest rate policy," said Jane Foley, senior FX strategist, at Rabobank in a research note.

"Since the reflation trade is centered around U.S. fiscal policy and growth expectations, the U.S. dollar could prove to be more resilient than the consensus had been expecting at the start of the year."

Rising U.S. yields have lifted the greenback 2% so far this year thanks to widening interest rate differentials relative to other major bond markets. The dollar declined more than 4% in the last quarter of 2020.

In mid-morning trading, the dollar index =USD , which tracks the U.S. currency against six major peers, was up 0.2% at 91.68 . It hit a late November 2020 high of 92.51 last week.

The U.S. currency has been supported by declining bets for its decline, with speculators cutting net short positions to the lowest since mid-November in the week ended March 9. bond yields will continue to focus minds this week before a Fed meeting at which some analysts expect policymakers to strike an optimistic tone on the U.S. economy.

While there are some expectations that the Fed might try to calm bond markets - yields have risen some 60 basis points since the last Fed meeting - the consensus view is Fed Chief Jerome Powell will not make changes to policy.

"The Fed is not expected to tinker with its monetary policy but instead communicate via forecasts that the situation is under control and that markets are running way ahead of themselves," SEB analysts said in a note.

The greenback rose 0.2% against the yen to 109.19 JPY=EBS , after earlier climbing to 109.36 yen, the highest since June 2020.

The euro weakened 0.3% to $1.1920 EUR=EBS after rising last week for the first time in three weeks as latest data showed hedge funds slashed their net euro positions.

The Australian dollar AUD=D3 - viewed widely as a liquid proxy for risk appetite - fell 0.4% to US$0.7725, extending Friday's Loss.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, weakened 3.3% after surging to a record high of $61,781.83 over the weekend. bid prices at 10:29AM (1429 GMT) Description

RIC

Last

U.S. Close Pct Change

YTD Pct

High Bid

Low Bid

Previous

Change

Session

Dollar index

=USD

91.8610

91.6800

+0.21%

2.089%

+91.8900

+91.5370 Euro/Dollar

EUR=EBS

$1.1921

$1.1953

-0.27%

-2.43%

+$1.1968

+$1.1917 Dollar/Yen

JPY=D3

109.2150

109.0200

+0.19%

+5.75%

+109.3550 +108.9300 Euro/Yen

EURJPY=

130.19

130.29

-0.08%

+2.58%

+130.4800 +130.0400 Dollar/Swiss

CHF=EBS

0.9293

0.9296

-0.02%

+5.06%

+0.9312

+0.9278 Sterling/Dollar GBP=D3

$1.3896

$1.3970

-0.52%

+1.72%

+$1.3948

+$1.3895 Dollar/Canadian CAD=D3

1.2485

1.2475

+0.08%

-1.96%

+1.2500

+1.2442 Aussie/Dollar

AUD=D3

$0.7730

$0.7758

-0.35%

+0.49%

+$0.7775

+$0.7722 Euro/Swiss

EURCHF=

1.1077

1.1107

-0.27%

+2.50%

+1.1108

+1.1071 Euro/Sterling

EURGBP=

0.8575

0.8588

-0.15%

-4.05%

+0.8589

+0.8555 NZ

NZD=D3

$0.7184

$0.7177

+0.10%

+0.04%

+$0.7216

+$0.7180 Dollar/Dollar

Dollar/Norway

NOK=D3

8.4730

8.4395

+0.39%

-1.33%

+8.4840

+8.4140 Euro/Norway

EURNOK=

10.1042

10.0750

+0.29%

-3.47%

+10.1150

+10.0431 Dollar/Sweden

SEK=

8.5330

8.4783

+0.37%

+4.11%

+8.5474

+8.4691 Euro/Sweden

EURSEK=

10.1717

10.1338

+0.37%

+0.95%

+10.1912

+10.1339

<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ World FX rates

https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E JPY positions

https://tmsnrt.rs/3crNRPE

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