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FOREX-Dollar slides as Fed dampens early U.S. rate hike view

Published 18/03/2021, 06:23 am
© Reuters.
EUR/USD
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USD/JPY
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USD/CHF
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USD/SEK
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EDc1
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* Fed says to keep rates low through all of 2023

* Eurodollar futures pare back bets on rate hikes in 2022, 2023

* Graphic: World FX rates https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E (New throughout, adds Fed statement, new comment)

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss

NEW YORK, March 17 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar fell on Wednesday, after the Federal Reserve said it does not expect to raise interest rates through all of 2023, contrary to market expectations.

The dollar index dropped 0.5% to 91.44 =USD after the Fed comments.

The greenback had reversed its slide in recent sessions on a surge in U.S. Treasury yields due in part to growing expectations that the Fed may tighten rates earlier than thought on forecasts of a faster-than-expected economic recovery.

In a statement after the Fed held interest rates steady, the U.S. central bank said it expects a rapid jump in U.S. economic growth and inflation this year as the COVID-19 crisis winds down, and vowed to keep its target interest rate near zero for years to come. was in contrast to what the eurodollar futures market suggested before the Fed statement, almost fully pricing in a rate hike by December 2022 and three increases in 2023. the improvement in the Fed's economic outlook did not immediately change policymakers' expectations for interest rates, the weight of opinion did shift. Seven of 18 officials now expect to raise rates in 2023, compared to five in December.

"The Fed has materially upgraded its assessment of the U.S. economy's potential over the next several years, rather than merely reshuffling improvements from one year to another," said Matt Weller, global head of market research, at Gain Capital

"Though policymakers did start to price in earlier interest rate hikes, the shift was less hawkish than many traders had feared," he added.

After the Fed statement, eurodollar futures pared back bets on an interest rate hike by December 2022. It has priced in so far a 90% chance of tightening by March 2023 and just two hikes for the whole of that year. EDc1

The euro rose 0.7% against the dollar to $1.1978 EUR=EBS .

Against the yen, the dollar fell 0.2% to 108.84 yen JPY=EBS .

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Currency bid prices at 3:10PM (1910 GMT) Description

RIC

Last

U.S. Close Pct Change

YTD Pct

High Bid

Low Bid

Previous

Change

Session

Dollar index

=USD

91.4530

91.8730

-0.45%

1.636%

+92.0060

+91.3870 Euro/Dollar

EUR=EBS

$1.1972

$1.1903

+0.60%

-2.00%

+$1.1985

+$1.1887 Dollar/Yen

JPY=D3

108.8400

109.0200

-0.18%

+5.35%

+109.3200 +108.7900 Euro/Yen

EURJPY=

130.30

129.75

+0.42%

+2.66%

+130.4300 +129.7200 Dollar/Swiss

CHF=EBS

0.9222

0.9248

-0.30%

+4.22%

+0.9296

+0.9218 Sterling/Dollar GBP=D3

$1.3942

$1.3895

+0.36%

+2.07%

+$1.3949

+$1.3853 Dollar/Canadian CAD=D3

1.2420

1.2448

-0.25%

-2.49%

+1.2493

+1.2411 Aussie/Dollar

AUD=D3

$0.7793

$0.7746

+0.68%

+1.37%

+$0.7800

+$0.7700 Euro/Swiss

EURCHF=

1.1041

1.1007

+0.31%

+2.17%

+1.1061

+1.1006 Euro/Sterling

EURGBP=

0.8585

0.8567

+0.21%

-3.94%

+0.8604

+0.8541 NZ

NZD=D3

$0.7235

$0.7190

+0.68%

+0.81%

+$0.7245

+$0.7155 Dollar/Dollar

Dollar/Norway

NOK=D3

8.4180

8.4700

-0.65%

-2.00%

+8.5145

+8.4050 Euro/Norway

EURNOK=

10.0811

10.0967

-0.15%

-3.69%

+10.1351

+10.0735 Dollar/Sweden

SEK=

8.4537

8.4960

+0.15%

+3.14%

+8.5298

+8.4476 Euro/Sweden

EURSEK=

10.1210

10.1058

+0.15%

+0.44%

+10.1465

+10.1140

<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ World FX rates

https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>

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