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FOREX-Norwegian crown drops after growth data boosts rate cut bets

Published 20/08/2015, 06:45 pm
FOREX-Norwegian crown drops after growth data boosts rate cut bets
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(recasts, adds reaction to Norwegian data)

* Norwegian crown drops after Q2 GDP numbers

* Dollar steadies after falling sharply on Fed minutes

By Anirban Nag

LONDON, Aug 20 (Reuters) - The Norwegian crown fell to its lowest in over seven months against the euro on Thursday after Norway's economy slowed in the second quarter, leaving the door open for more monetary easing in coming months.

The crown has fallen 10 percent in the past three months against the euro as prices of crude oil, Norway's main export, fell, dampening overall investment and pushing up unemployment.

The euro rose 0.4 percent to 9.2734 crowns, its highest since early January. The dollar was also 0.4 percent higher at 8.3161 crowns, not far from a five-month high of 8.3593 crowns struck on Wednesday.

"The data while in line with expectations is not good with the revisions to the first quarter catching the market's attention," said Richard Falkenhall, currency strategist at SEB. "This boosts expectations that the Norges Bank will lower rates next month and the euro can rise up to 9.50 crowns."

Norway's overall economy shrank in the second quarter, with the mainland growing at a measly 0.2 percent.

Meanwhile the dollar stabilised, having fallen after Federal Reserve meeting minutes suggested policymakers were in no hurry to raise interest rates. Officials agreed last month the economy was nearing a point where rates should move higher, but were worried lagging inflation and a weak global economy posed risks too big to commit to liftoff."

Traders expecting a September rise subsequently sold the dollar, pushing it to a three-week low of 123.68 yen JPY= . It recovered to trade at 124.05 yen, up 0.2 percent on the day. The euro was steady at $1.1110. EUR=

The probability of a September hike is now 45 percent from about 50 percent towards the end of July, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's Fedwatch, a factor that is likely to see investors trim long dollar positions in the near term.

"The minutes have not factored in falling oil prices and events in China that have taken centre stage since the meeting in July. It would not be surprising if policymakers are even more dovish now in light of these events," said Monex senior strategist Masafumi Yamamoto in Tokyo.

Investors will be able to gauge policymakers' latest thinking when San Francisco Fed President John Williams speaks in Indonesia later in the day. (additional reporting by Shinichi Saoshiro; Editing by)

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