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Forex - Weekly outlook: February 22 - 26

Published 21/02/2016, 10:59 pm
© Reuters.  Dollar slips against yen, euro despite robust U.S. inflation data
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Investing.com - The dollar fell against most of the other major currencies on Friday, while the yen strengthened broadly as fresh falls in oil prices and equities underlined concerns over the outlook for the global economy.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, eased 0.23% to 96.62 late Friday. The index still ended the week with gains of 0.65%.

The dollar found broad support as largely upbeat U.S. data earlier in the week reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve is likely to say on a monetary tightening path this year.

Data on Friday showed that the U.S. consumer price index rose at an annual rate of 1.4% in January, ahead of expectations for a 1.3% increase.

Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose by a larger than forecast 2.2%.

Despite the strong U.S. inflation data, the dollar fell to one-week lows of 112.29 against the safe haven yen and USD/JPY was last at 112.66, off 0.53% for the day.

The low yielding euro was also higher against the dollar, with EUR/USD up 0.22% at 1.1130 in late trade, but the pair still ended the week down 0.83%.

The single currency fell to two-and-a-half year lows against the firmer yen, with EUR/JPY falling lows of 125.00, before easing back to settle at 125.36.

Thursday’s minutes of the European Central Bank’s January meeting cemented expectations for further easing next month, saying growth and inflation risks are on the rise in the euro area.

The pound was boosted by hopes that European Union leaders would reach an agreement to help Britain remain in the bloc.

Sterling received an additional boost from far stronger than expected data on U.K. retail sales for January.

GBP/USD was up 0.47% at 1.4405 late Friday.

Elsewhere, the greenback was up against the Australian dollar, the Canadian dollar and the New Zealand dollar, due in large part to a fresh slide in oil prices.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking to Monday’s survey data on euro zone business activity for indications on the health of the region’s economy.

The week will also bring a look at business sentiment in both the euro zone and the U.S. and Thursday’s report on U.S. durable goods orders will give investors fresh insight on the strength of the manufacturing sector.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, February 22

The euro zone is to release survey data on manufacturing and service sector activity. Germany and France are also to release individual reports.

Switzerland is to release data on producer price inflation.

Tuesday, February 23

In the euro zone, the Ifo Institute is to report on German business climate.

Swiss National Bank Chairman Thomas Jordan is to speak at an event in Frankfurt.

The U.S. is to release data on consumer confidence and existing home sales.

Wednesday, February 24

Australia is to release data on construction sector activity and the wage price index.

The U.S. is to release a report on new home sales and data on crude oil inventories.

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard is to speak at an event in New York.

Thursday, February 25

Australia is to release data on private capital expenditure.

The U.K. is to release revised data on fourth quarter gross domestic product as well as preliminary data on business investment.

The euro zone is to publish revised inflation data.

The U.S. is to release reports on durable goods orders and initial jobless claims.

Friday, February 26

New Zealand is to report on the trade balance.

Japan is to publish data on inflation.

In the euro zone, Germany and Spain are to release preliminary estimates of inflation.

The U.S. is to round up the week with revised data on U.S. fourth quarter GDP, as well as data on personal spending and consumer sentiment.

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