Markets
US stocks are witnessing an upward trend as investors welcome indications that two significant risks looming over the markets may be subsiding. Hints from Capitol Hill suggest that a bill to raise the US debt ceiling could be presented next week, potentially averting a disastrous default by the federal government.
Supporting this optimism is an array of positive economic data such as a better-than-anticipated Philly Fed index, reduced weekly jobless claims, strong consumer-focused results from Walmart, and a predicted decline in existing home sales. Collectively, these factors might imply that the US economy continues on its path toward a soft landing while avoiding recession during its post-pandemic recovery phase.
Impressive macro releases and robust results from Walmart Inc (NYSE:WMT) help alleviate immediate recession concerns. The company's Q1 2023 earnings per share (EPS) exceeded expectations due to increased ticket sales and traffic growth while also raising their FY23 EPS guidance.
Forex
The release of solid US economic data has mitigated fears of recession but brought mixed news for those betting against the dollar. Recent comments by Federal Reserve officials highlight ongoing debates among committee members regarding future actions needed to support the economy. Regardless of differing opinions on whether more intervention is required or not, all agree that data dependence remains crucial for decision-making.
Consequently, strong US economic indicators have caused market participants to adjust their forward rate expectations for the country once again; with two-year UST yields increasing by 10 basis points to reach 4.25% amid hawkish remarks from Fed officials – positioning the dollar favorably once more.
In Asia's currency markets, traders seem cautious about further yuan sell-offs before G-7 meetings – anticipating potential interventions by China’s central bank (PBoC) to stabilize the currency and maintain its international appeal.
Oil
The oil market is caught between contrasting factors – robust US economic data on one hand, and weak Chinese data coupled with deflationary pressures from China on the other. A smooth US economic landing should bode well for oil demand, particularly as global consumption increased by 3 million barrels per day (MB/D) in March, reaching an all-time high among Jodi-reporting countries. Furthermore, a significant decline in US gasoline inventories indicates surging domestic demand.
However, challenges to bullish sentiment arise from supply-side issues involving covert fleets transporting Russian and Iraqi oil globally – keeping inventory levels high.
Oil and FX
Interactions between commodities and macroeconomic variables often come under scrutiny when the US dollar experiences fluctuations. Generally speaking, causality tests over the past two decades suggest that commodity markets primarily influence currency markets rather than vice versa – implying that USD strength or weakness has minimal impact on global oil demand.
Nonetheless, a strong dollar typically signifies a healthy US economy alongside weaker foreign counterparts. The recent depreciation of China's yuan suggests worsening deflationary pressures within their economy – an unfavorable development for global oil markets.