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Australian dlr at 6-wk low as bond yields fall further

Published 28/11/2019, 02:24 pm
© Reuters.  Australian dlr at 6-wk low as bond yields fall further
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By Wayne Cole

SYDNEY, Nov 28 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar hit a six-week trough on Thursday as investors feared tensions over Hong Kong could sour the Sino-U.S. trade talks, while underwhelming economic news at home pulled bond yields yet lower.

The Aussie slipped as far as $0.6764 AUD=D3 at one point after U.S. President Donald Trump signed into law congressional legislation backing protesters in Hong Kong. provoked a warning from China's Foreign Ministry that Beijing would take "firm counter measures" against interference. break of chart support at $0.6770 was a bearish signal for the Aussie and risked a retreat to at least $0.6724.

Adding insult to injury, data showed Australian business investment dipped 0.2% in the third quarter and a sharp drop in equipment spending likely dragged on economic activity.

That was a black mark for gross domestic product (GDP) figures due next week that are expected to show another quarter of only modest growth.

"Overall, the weak investment cycle continues, reflecting a multitude of factors – tepid demand, weak confidence amid heightened global trade concerns - and in line with the global capex cycle," said Robert Thompson, macro rates strategist at RBC Capital Markets.

"The tepid set of numbers today hints at a bit of downside to our preliminary 0.6% q/q GDP forecast."

The poor outlook only added to speculation of further rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and futures 0#YIB: are now fully priced for an easing to 0.5% by April.

They also imply a 54% chance of yet a further move to 0.25% by the end of next year.

Bonds extended their rally as yields on 10-year paper AU10YT=RR hit a six-week low of 1.036%, a sharp turnaround from a 1.34% top earlier this month.

The three-year bond future YTTc1 added another 2 ticks to 99.370 and was fast approaching its all-time peak at 99.460.

Across the Tasman, the New Zealand dollar was enjoying a run of better economic news as a survey of businesses showed a marked improvement in mood this month. ANZ Bank's key sentiment gauge reached its highest level for the year so far, and that followed figures showing retail spending rose sharply in the September quarter.

That helped the kiwi dollar NZD=D3 hold firm at $0.6423 and just short of major resistance at $0.6437.

The country's diverging economic fortunes saw the Aussie skid to a three-month low at NZ$1.0532 AUDNZD= , down almost 0.6% for the week so far.

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