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Australian & NZ dlrs off lows, but seen vulnerable

Published 03/08/2015, 12:47 pm
Updated 03/08/2015, 12:56 pm
© Reuters.  Australian & NZ dlrs off lows, but seen vulnerable
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By Cecile Lefort and Gyles Beckford

SYDNEY/WELLINGTON, Aug 3 (Reuters) - The Australian and New Zealand dollars were off their lows on Monday ahead of a week packed with events, but remained vulnerable to further disappointment from Chinese data and falling commodity prices.

The Australian dollar stood at $0.7303, having plumbed a six-year trough of $0.7234 on Friday. It dropped around 5 percent in July, the largest monthly loss in nearly one year.

Much of the weakness came from a combination of slipping prices of iron ore, Australia's top export earner, a slowdown in Chinese growth and expectations of a U.S. interest rate hike.

A private-sector gauge of Australian inflation showed price pressures remained well-contained in July and were no bar to another cut in interest rates if needed.

The Reserve Bank of Australia holds a policy meeting on Tuesday and is widely expected to keep rates at an all-time low of 2.0 percent. Investors will focus on the statement's outlook for rates and any tweaks to past calls for a lower currency.

Market pricing implies a two-in-three chance of another cut by Christmas. Initial chart support for the Aussie was found around $0.7285.

The New Zealand dollar NZD=D4 was holding around $0.6590, having traded as high as $0.6675 on Friday.

"We remain negative on the NZ dollar, with this week set to remind the market about local pain points ... We look for NZ dollar-negative outcomes from the dairy auction and the Fonterra payout update," said BNZ strategist Raiko Shareef.

The results of the latest global dairy auction are due on Wednesday, with no expectation of a turnaround in prices which have fallen around 60 percent from their peak early last year.

The continuing price weakness is expected to result in dairy giant Fonterra cutting its forecast payout for the just-started production season when its board meets on Friday.

Near-term kiwi support is seen at $0.6540 and sellers are expected from $0.6630.

New Zealand government bond yields were 1 to 2 basis points lower across the curve.

Australian government bond futures were a touch firmer, with the three-year bond contract YTTc1 up 1 tick at 98.100. The 10-year contract was half a tick higher at 97.2100. (Editing by Edmund Klamann)

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