By Wayne Cole
SYDNEY, Nov 21 (Reuters) - The Australian and New Zealand dollars backpedalled on Thursday, as concerns the Sino-U.S. trade dispute would drag on for a long time yet clouded the outlook for global growth and drove Aussie bond yields to five-week lows.
Completion of a "phase one" U.S.-China trade deal could slide into next year, trade experts and people close to the White House told Reuters on Wednesday. Aussie dollar duly eased back to $0.6788 AUD=D3 , having been as high as $0.6831 at one stage on Wednesday, and now risks testing support around $0.6770.
Likewise, the kiwi slipped to $0.6408 NZD=D3 , from a top of $0.6436, though it was still holding a slight gain for the week. Immediate support comes in at $0.6405, with another layer at $0.6382.
The kiwi continues to outperform the Aussie, which hit a three-month trough at NZ$1.0590 AUDNZD= having slid 2% in little more than a week.
"AUD/NZD can continue to ease towards its 200-day moving average of 1.0568 in the near-term in our view," said Kim Mundy, a currency strategist at CBA.
"Australian-NZ interest rate spreads can continue to widen because of higher expectations for additional monetary policy easing in Australia compared to New Zealand."
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand wrongfooted investors last week by skipping a chance to cut rates and emphasised it was on hold for the time being.
Its next policy meeting is not until Feb. 12 and markets imply only a 27% chance of an easing at the time. RBNZWATCH
Minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) November policy meeting out this week showed its Board came much closer to easing than first thought, leading the market to narrow the odds on a future move. 0#YIB: imply a 20% chance of a quarter-point cut at the next meeting on Dec. 3, rising to 66% by February.
Domestic bond markets have already diverged. Yields on Australian 10-year debt AU10YT=RR have fallen a steep 29 basis points to 1.06% in the past two weeks, while those on New Zealand bonds NZ10YT=RR have eased only 18 basis points to 1.34%.
The Australian 10-year bond future YTCc1 added another 1.5 ticks on Thursday to 98.9450 and reached its highest since mid-October.
Speculation is also growing that the RBA will ultimately have to embark on some form of quantitative easing to reach its employment and inflation goals.
RBA Governor Philip Lowe is due to speak on the topic next week and has, in the past, indicated any form of QE would likely start with buying government bonds.
Kieran Davies, a market economist at NAB, estimated the RBA would have to buy around A$115 billion ($78.2 billion) of the outstanding federal debt of roughly A$500 billion, to achieve its goals.
"We calculate that A$115 billion of bond purchases could reduce the 10-year bond yield by roughly 35 bps, with a range of 10 to 70 bps, and lower the exchange rate by about 1.8%, with a range of 0.5% to 3.5%," he added.
($1 = 1.4712 Australian dollars) (Editing by Jacqueline Wong)