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FOREX-Road unclear for dollar drive higher despite Draghi broadside

Published 12/11/2015, 11:47 pm
Updated 12/11/2015, 11:50 pm
© Reuters.  FOREX-Road unclear for dollar drive higher despite Draghi broadside
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* ECB's Draghi warning on inflation knocks euro half a cent lower

* Resistance to more falls around $1.07

* Market hopes for direction from string of Fed speakers

* Aussie rallies on strong Oct jobs data (Updates prices)

By Patrick Graham

LONDON, Nov 12 (Reuters) - The euro dipped briefly below $1.07 on Thursday after European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi singled out the currency's more robust performance since May as one driver for a "weakening" outlook on inflation.

His prepared testimony to the European parliament jolted a currency market which has been drifting since a unexpectedly strong batch of U.S. jobs numbers last week prompted many to bet on a rise in Federal Reserve interest rates next month.

But there was no follow-through after the initial drop and by midday in Europe, the single currency had again recovered to trade at $1.0714, down 0.3 percent on the day but still well above this week's low of $1.0674.

"Some real action after Draghi this morning, but it's noticeable that we haven't pushed on," said a trader with one international bank in London.

There is a broad consensus among the major currency trading banks that the dollar should rise but analysts have pointed to several barriers standing in the way of a swift push to highs of $1.0450 hit in March and April.

That has added to a sticky performance this week that also seems linked to a generally weaker tone to commodity prices and worries over what view Fed officials may take of the dollar's gains.

"(There are) concerns the Fed may lace a rate hike next month with a relatively dovish message," analysts from Rabobank said in a note.

"U.S. price pressure remains moderate and with the gains in the USD since the middle of last year having effectively already tightened monetary conditions in the U.S., there is risk that the Fed may revise down its projections for further policy tightening next month."

Prior to Draghi's comments, the Australian dollar had been the day's only big mover, surging more than 1 percent to its highest in a week after the strong jobs readout knocked 0.3 percentage points off unemployment.

A number of European analysts expressed disbelief at the official numbers, which cool expectations of more loosening of monetary policy in an economy that has looked moribund since the end of a China-driven commodities investment boom.

Morgan Stanley (N:MS) are among the more bullish of the major banks on the Aussie but even they urged caution on the numbers.

"Stellar Australian consumer confidence and labour market data support our economists' call for the RBA leaving rates unchanged this year," the bank's strategists said in a note.

"However, the sustainability of Australia's economic rebound is in doubt. Current Aussie strength may only offer tactical bullish opportunities, towards $0.74 AUD= , while the long-term outlook remains bearish."

After a slight retreat at the start of the European session, the Aussie was up 1.1 percent on the day at $0.7137. (Editing by Mark Heinrich)

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