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FOREX-Dollar solidly higher on rising bets of Fed hike by year-end

Published 09/11/2015, 11:18 am
Updated 09/11/2015, 11:20 am
© Reuters.  FOREX-Dollar solidly higher on rising bets of Fed hike by year-end
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* DXY hits highest since mid-April after bullish U.S. jobs report

* Long-dollar positions rose even ahead of payrolls data-IMM

* Downbeat China trade data pressures Aussie

By Lisa Twaronite

TOKYO, Nov 9 (Reuters) - The dollar remained aloft in Asian trade on Monday, after soaring to nearly seven-month highs against a basket of currencies as robust U.S. employment data prompted more investors to bet on an interest rate increase by year this year.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose 271,000 last month, far exceeding the 180,000 new jobs for October economists polled by Reuters had predicted. Following the report, 15 of 17 primary dealers, the banks that deal with the U.S. Federal Reserve directly, said they expect it to raise rates at its next meeting in December, according to a Reuters poll.

Interest rates futures were pricing in a 70 percent probability that the U.S. central bank will raise borrowing costs next month, according to the CME Group's (O:CME) FedWatch.

U.S. Treasury yields jumped after the payrolls report, with the 2-year yield US2YT=RR marking its highest level in 5-1/2-years. US/

Even ahead of the robust jobs data, some investors had begun betting on a rate increase. Speculators bolstered bullish bets on the U.S. dollar in the week through Nov. 3, as net long-dollar positions climbed to their highest in more than two months, according to Reuters calculations and data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission released on Friday.

The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major rival currencies, was up about 0.1 percent at 99.256 .DXY after rising as high as 99.345 on Friday, its loftiest peak since mid-April.

"Initial support is seen near 98.00, but given the prospects for ECB easing a fortnight before the Fed hikes, dips in the dollar index will likely be bought as long dollar positions previously reduced are re-established," strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman wrote in a note to clients.

At the last European Central Bank meeting, ECB President Mario Draghi indicated that the central bank was seriously considering expanding its bond purchase programme and perhaps even lowering its already-negative deposit rate.

The divergence in monetary policy expectations pressured the euro, which was down about 0.1 percent at $1.0730 EUR= , after dropping to a seven-month low of $1.0704 on Friday.

The dollar also gained on its Japanese counterpart, adding 0.1 percent to 123.25 JPY= , after rising as high as 123.35 earlier in the Asian session, its highest since late August.

The Australian dollar slipped 0.1 percent to $0.7034 after earlier dropping as low as $0.7016, its lowest since early October, pummeled by both the upbeat U.S. labour report as well as disappointing Chinese trade figures. The Aussie is a proxy for China plays, as it is a main market for Australia's exports.

Chinese exports slipped 6.9 percent in October from a year ago, down for a fourth month, while imports slipped 18.8 percent, leaving the country with a record high trade surplus of $61.64 billion, the General Administration of Customs said on Sunday.

(Editing by Shri Navaratnam)

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