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FOREX-Dollar push past $1.08 per euro hangs on jobs data

Published 06/11/2015, 10:28 pm
Updated 06/11/2015, 10:30 pm
© Reuters.  FOREX-Dollar push past $1.08 per euro hangs on jobs data
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* Dlr index at 3-mth high on rising expectations of Dec rate hike

* Euro held up by major support around $1.08

* Sterling at 1-month low after BoE dampens rate hike expectations (Recasts with new dollar high, adds more quotes)

By Patrick Graham

LONDON, Nov 6 (Reuters) - The dollar inched up to a three-month high against a basket of currencies on Friday, looking set for an attack on longer-term resistance around $1.08 per euro if jobs data on Friday backs a rise in U.S. interest rates next month.

Traders and positioning data say money has piled in behind another rally for the dollar over the past two weeks, but whether the greenback can build quickly on a more than 4 percent rise in the past month depends on payrolls cementing expectations of a December rate move.

Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, seen by many as a swing voter at the U.S. central bank, was the latest to sound open to hiking on Thursday and the dollar index rose around 0.2 percent in morning trade in Europe. .DXY

"All that matters for the Fed is that we get a number that shows the momentum of the data has turned positive again," said Bank of America (N:BAC) Merrill Lynch's head of G10 FX strategy Athanasios Vamvakidis.

"If this number is weak, the number in December may not be enough for the Fed to hike. I think there is some upside risk (for the euro today) but after any euro rally we will sell the euro again."

Like a number of the other major currency trading banks, Vamvakidis is predicting a fall in the euro to parity with the dollar in the first quarter of next year and to $1.05 by the end of 2015.

Thursday's big faller was sterling, hit by a surprisingly cautious message from the Bank of England on the dangers to growth and chances of higher rates next year. The pound fell another half percent to a one-month low of $1.5135 on Friday.

The median forecast for the U.S. October nonfarm payrolls in a Reuters poll of economists was an increase of 180,000, above slightly sluggish job growth of 142,000 in September. The data is due at 1330 GMT.

Even if those numbers push back expectations on U.S. rates, many think the euro will come under more pressure in the months ahead. The European Central Bank's signal last month that additional policy easing was likely has driven it to its lowest since late July.

"If the numbers are not good enough to support a hike next month then the dollar will stay where it is today, but given that the ECB is set on doing more QE, the euro will have to go down over time," said Peter Jerrom, FX desk head at Sigma Broking.

"Earnings are probably more important than the employment rate today, anything above 2.3 percent growth in annual terms should help the dollar."

(Editing by Catherine Evans)

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