Cyber Monday Deal: Up to 60% off InvestingProCLAIM SALE

WRAPUP 1-Asia central bank doves flutter wings as Fed takes its time

Published 22/09/2016, 06:25 pm
© Reuters.  WRAPUP 1-Asia central bank doves flutter wings as Fed takes its time

SINGAPORE, Sept 22 (Reuters) - By dallying over raising interest rates the U.S. Federal Reserve made it easier this week for central banks in the Asia Pacific to stay dovish, with Indonesia expected to lower rates on Thursday and Australia and New Zealand saying they could cut later.

Signalling slower and fewer rate increases at its policy meeting on Wednesday, the Fed left investors feeling that any tightening would be glacial at best. has a more ultra-easy monetary policy than Japan, where the central bank said on Wednesday it would persist with its massive asset-buying and negative rates, while at the same time shifting its policy framework to one more suited to a long battle against deflation. stances taken by the Fed and the BoJ have renewed global demand for longer-tenor bonds.

"This is supportive of rates in core emerging markets, and lowers the hurdle for emerging market central banks to ease policy," Citi analysts said in a note.

Bank Indonesia is widely expected to make its fifth rate cut this year to nudge economic growth higher, with inflation running below its 3-5 percent target.

The rupiah's more than 5 percent gain against the dollar so far this year was another good reason for BI to cut, according to economists. ROOM TO EASE

Most of Asia has room to maintain an easing bias. Growth rates are mostly on the low side of reasonable, official rates are above zero and inflation is running below targets.

Moreover, heavy reliance on exports renders their economies vulnerable to weak demand from China and Europe, even if the United States is buying more.

And while none - except for Singapore - run monetary policies that actually target exchange rates, low interest rates do help them keep their currencies competitive.

Earlier on Thursday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held steady, having already cut twice this year, lowering its policy rate to a record low of 2.0 percent. a high New Zealand dollar and tepid inflation - running at just 0.4 percent versus a target of 1-3 percent - gave the RBNZ reason to predict more easing to come.

"Our current projections and assumptions indicate that further policy easing will be required to ensure that future inflation settles near the middle of the target range," RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler said in a statement.

"A decline in the exchange rate is needed," he said.

In some ways, what is happening in New Zealand reflects trends elsewhere.

"Activity in the labour market and the broader economy has been solid, but wages and inflation continues to undershoot their target and they are worried about it feeding into inflation expectations," Su-lin Ong, senior economist at RBC Capital Markets in Sydney.

"That's very much a global theme right now."

NOT A NUTTER

Australia's new central bank governor, Philip Lowe, also held open the possibility of further cuts in rates, already at record lows, while noting that the lower rates get the less effective cuts became in terms of boosting the economy.

"Looking forward, we expect the economy to continue to be supported by low interest rates and the depreciation of the exchange rate since early 2013," Lowe told a parliamentary economics committee.

An encouraging uptick in non-mining investment and better than expected economic growth of 3.3 percent in the year to June, however, could mean the Reserve Bank of Australia will be in no rush to lower rates as it adopts a flexible approach to attaining its 2-3 percent inflation target.

"We have not seen our job as always keeping inflation tightly in a narrow range," Lowe said. "We have not been what some have called 'inflation nutters'."

And while the Philippines central bank held its benchmark rate steady on Thursday, it is an odd man out in the region.

The Philippines' next rate move, possibly early next year, is expected to be up, as inflation is seen rising into the central bank's 2-4 percent target range. Asian central bank policy rates

http://tmsnrt.rs/1U5hc2W Asia's bond yields

http://tmsnrt.rs/29mqoBf

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^> (Writing by Simon Cameron-Moore; Editing by Kim Coghill)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.