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The Week Ahead: 5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar

Published 26/03/2017, 09:58 pm
Updated 26/03/2017, 10:08 pm
© Reuters.  5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar In The Week Ahead

© Reuters. 5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar In The Week Ahead

Investing.com - Global financial markets will shift their focus to Brexit-related events in the week ahead, with British Prime Minister Theresa May expected to notify the European Union of Britain's intention to leave, starting two years of unprecedented negotiations.

Meanwhile, in the U.S., more than a dozen Federal Reserve policymakers, including Chair Janet Yellen, are due to make public appearances that may offer insight into the likelihood of higher interest rates in the months ahead.

Traders will also keep an eye out on a final reading of U.S. fourth-quarter economic growth for confirmation that the narrative of stronger growth is intact.

Elsewhere, investors will await monthly inflation data out of the euro zone to assess the timing of when the European Central Bank will start unwinding its massive asset purchase program.

In China, market players will be looking out for data on the country's manufacturing sector, amid ongoing concerns over the health of the world's second biggest economy.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of the five biggest events on the economic calendar that are most likely to affect the markets.

1. U.K. Set to Trigger Article 50

British Prime Minister Theresa May is set to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which officially kicks off the process of exiting the European Union.

May will send a letter to European Council President Donald Tusk formally announcing Britain's withdrawal from the bloc on Wednesday. Tusk will then send draft negotiating guidelines to the 27 other member states within 48 hours.

The correspondence will start the clock ticking on a two-year countdown to Brexit and allow negotiations to start between London and Brussels in the coming weeks.

Besides Brexit-related developments, traders will be looking ahead to a final reading on U.K. fourth-quarter economic growth on Friday for further indications on the continued effect that the Brexit decision is having on the economy.

The report is forecast to confirm the economy grew 0.7% in the final three months of last year. On a year-over-year basis, the economy is expected to grow by 2.2%, underlining the view that the British economy remains on a solid footing.

The Bank of England voted to keep interest rates unchanged earlier this month, but the decision was split with one of the nine members voting to raise rates for the first time since July given the recent spike in inflation.

2. Fed Speakers Take Center Stage

On Monday, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan are scheduled to deliver comments.

Tuesday sees Fed Chair Janet Yellen speak on workforce development challenges in low-income communities at 9:50AM ET (14:50GMT).

Kansas City Fed President Esther George, Dallas Fed President Kaplan and Fed Governor Jerome Powell are also on tap Tuesday.

On Wednesday, Chicago Fed's Evans, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren and San Francisco Fed President John Williams make public appearances.

Thursday sees Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, Dallas Fed's Kaplan, San Francisco Fed's Williams and New York Fed President William Dudley deliver comments.

Finally, on Friday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard are scheduled to make public appearances.

The Fed raised interest rates earlier this month, but stuck to its outlook for two more hikes this year, instead of three expected by the market.

Fed fund futures priced in around a 45% chance of a rate hike in June, according to Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool. Odds of a September increase was seen at about 70%.

3. U.S. 4th Quarter GDP - Third Estimate

The U.S. is to release final figures on fourth-quarter economic growth at 8:30AM ET (13:30GMT) Thursday. The data is expected to show that the economy expanded at a healthy 2% annual rate in the final three months of 2016, upwardly revised from a preliminary estimate of 1.9%.

Besides the GDP report, this week's calendar also features U.S. data on consumer confidence on Tuesday, pending home sales on Wednesday, weekly jobless claims on Thursday followed by personal income and spending, which includes the personal consumption expenditures inflation data, the Fed's preferred metric for inflation, on Friday.

Headlines from Washington will also be in focus, as traders await further details on President Donald Trump's promises of tax reform following the House's failure to vote on a plan to replace Obamacare late last week.

4. Euro Zone Flash March Inflation Figures

The euro zone will publish flash inflation figures for March at 09:00GMT (5:00AM ET) Friday.

The consensus forecast is that the report will show consumer prices rose 1.8%, slowing from a gain of 2% in February. Core prices are expected to increase 0.8%, easing from a rise of 0.9% in the prior month.

Spain, France, Italy and Germany will produce their own CPI reports throughout the week.

Despite the upward trend in inflation, ECB President Mario Draghi recently downplayed the significance of rising consumer prices, saying that underlying inflation pressure remains “subdued.”

5. Chinese Manufacturing Data for March

The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing is to release data on March manufacturing sector activity at 01:00GMT on Friday, amid expectations for a modest improvement to 51.7.

On Saturday, the Caixin manufacturing index will be released at 01:45GMT.

Anything above 50.0 signals expansion, while readings below 50.0 indicate industry contraction.

Stay up-to-date on all of this week's economic events by visiting: http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

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