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The Week Ahead: 5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar

Published 02/07/2017, 07:42 pm
Updated 02/07/2017, 07:57 pm
© Reuters. 5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar In The Week Ahead

Investing.com - Global financial markets will focus on minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting in the week ahead, as investors look for more hints on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike and clues on how the central bank plans to pare back its balance sheet.

Market players will also keep an eye on key U.S. economic data, with Friday's monthly employment report in the spotlight.

Meanwhile, comments from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will be in focus, following his unexpected shift in rhetoric towards higher interest rates last week.

Elsewhere, traders will be looking to employment data from Canada amid fresh speculation the Bank of Canada could raise interest rates as soon as this month.

A monetary policy announcement from the Reserve Bank of Australia will also be in focus.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of the five biggest events on the economic calendar that are most likely to affect the markets.

1. Fed FOMC Meeting Minutes

The Federal Reserve will release minutes of its most recent policy meeting on Wednesday at 2:00PM ET (1800GMT).

There are also a number of Fed speakers in the coming week, with St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, San Francisco Fed Chief John Williams, Fed Governor Jay Powell and Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer all on the agenda.

The Fed raised interest rates as widely expected following its meeting on June 14 and maintained plans to go ahead with another rate hike by year-end. The central bank also provided greater detail about how it plans to reduce its massive $4.5 trillion balance sheet.

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Despite the Fed's relatively hawkish message, market players remained doubtful over the central bank's ability to raise rates as much as it would like in the coming months due to softening inflation.

Futures traders are pricing in about a 20% chance of a hike at the Fed's September meeting, according to Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool. Odds of a December increase was seen at around 50%.

2. U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Report

The U.S. Labor Department will release its June nonfarm payrolls report at 8:30AM ET (1230GMT) on Friday.

The consensus forecast is that the data will show jobs growth of 180,000 this month, following an increase of 138,000 in May, the unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.3%, while average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% after gaining 0.2% a month earlier.

Besides the monthly jobs report, this week's holiday-shortened calendar also features U.S. data on manufacturing and service sector growth, auto sales, factory orders as well as monthly trade figures.

Markets in the U.S. will remain closed on Tuesday for Independence Day.

3. BOE Governor Carney Speaks

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is due to speak at the Financial Stability Board, in Frankfurt, Germany at 1200GMT (8:00AM ET) Monday. Carney is due to speak again at the G20 Meetings in Hamburg, Germany on Friday.

His comments will be monitored closely for any new insight on policy and the timing of when the BOE will next raise interest rates.

There has been a significant shift in rhetoric toward higher interest rates from BOE policymakers during the past two weeks, with a hike by December now 70% priced in.

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Besides the BOE, traders will focus on a trio of reports on activity in the manufacturing, construction and services sectors for further indications on the continued effect that the Brexit decision is having on the economy.

4. Canadian Employment Data

Canada is to release June employment figures at 8:30AM ET (1230GMT) Friday.

The data is expected to show that the economy gained 15,000 jobs last month, following an increase of 54,500 in May, while the unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 6.6%.

In addition to the jobs report, Canada is to publish monthly trade figures, building permits and a closely-watched manufacturing survey.

Expectations of a rate hike at the Bank of Canada's July 12 meeting mounted after Governor Stephen Poloz reiterated last week that his 2015 cuts appeared to have done their job.

5. Reserve Bank of Australia Policy Meeting

The RBA's latest interest rate decision is due on Tuesday at 0430GMT.

Most economists expect the central bank to keep rates unchanged at the current record-low of 1.5% for the tenth straight meeting and maintain its neutral policy stance, as it balances the risk of rising household debt against subdued inflation and wages growth.

Besides the RBA, data on retail sales and the trade balance should also capture some attention.

Stay up-to-date on all of this week's economic events by visiting: http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

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