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The Week Ahead: 5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar

Published 30/04/2017, 06:32 pm
© Reuters.  5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar In The Week Ahead
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Investing.com - Global financial markets will be looking to this week's Federal Reserve policy meeting on Wednesday for fresh hints on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike.

Traders will also focus on the monthly U.S. employment report due Friday to gauge the health of the world's largest economy, especially in the wake of a recent string of disappointing economic data.

Elsewhere, the euro zone is to publish preliminary data on first-quarter economic growth on Wednesday for further hints on the strength of the region's economy.

Meanwhile, in the U.K., traders will focus on a trio of reports on activity in the manufacturing, construction and services sectors for further indications on the continued effect that the Brexit decision is having on the economy.

Investors will also pay close attention to monthly data on China's manufacturing sector, which should provide a health check of the world's second-largest economy at the start of the second quarter.

Most markets will be closed in Europe, the U.K. and Asia for the May Day holiday on Monday.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of the five biggest events on the economic calendar that are most likely to affect the markets.

1. Federal Reserve Rate Decision

The Federal Reserve is not expected to take action on interest rates at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting at 2:00PM ET (18:00GMT) on Wednesday.

The central bank will release its post-meeting statement as investors look for any change in language which could point more clearly to a June rate hike.

There are also a number of Fed speakers slated to make appearances following Wednesday's meeting, with Chair Janet Yellen due to deliver a speech titled "Monetary Policy Rules and Committees" at the Hoover Institution, in Stanford on Friday.

Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer, San Francisco Fed President John Williams, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard are also due to deliver comments on Friday.

Markets are currently pricing in around a 65% chance of a rate hike in June, according to Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool. For September, odds stood at about 80%.

The median Fed policymaker forecast is for two more rate increases by year-end, after already raising its benchmark interest rate once this year, by a quarter percentage point at its last policy meeting in March.

2. U.S. Jobs Report for April

The U.S. Labor Department will release its April nonfarm payrolls report at 8:30AM ET (12:30GMT) on Friday.

The consensus forecast is that the data will show jobs growth of 185,000, following an increase of just 98,000 in March, the unemployment rate is forecast to inch up to 4.6% from 4.5%, while average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% after gaining 0.2% a month earlier.

An upbeat employment report will point to an improving economy and support the case for higher interest rates in the coming months, while a weak report would add to uncertainty over the economic outlook and push prospects of tighter monetary policy further off the table.

Besides the jobs report, this week's calendar also features U.S. data on manufacturing and service sector growth, auto sales, personal spending, inflation, factory orders as well as monthly trade figures.

Headlines from Washington regarding President Donald Trump's health care reform and tax cuts will also be in focus.

Earnings from the likes of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), Time Warner (NYSE:TWX), Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) and Mastercard (NYSE:MA) are also on the radar this week.

3. Euro Zone flash Q1 GDP

The euro zone will publish a preliminary report on first-quarter economic growth at 09:00GMT (5:00AM ET) on Wednesday.

The region's economy is forecast to expand 0.5% in the first three months of the year, accelerating slightly from growth of 0.4% in the preceding quarter.

Data late last week appeared to broadly back that up with weaker-than-expected gross domestic product expansion of 0.3% in France offset by booming 0.8% growth in Spain.

Besides the GDP report, the euro zone will also release unemployment figures for March and final readings on April's Purchasing Managers' Indices.

4. U.K. April PMI's

The U.K. will release readings on April manufacturing sector activity at 08:30GMT (4:30AM ET) on Tuesday, followed by a report on the construction sector on Wednesday and the service sector on Thursday.

The manufacturing PMI is forecast to dip to 54.0 from 54.2 a month earlier, construction activity is expected to weaken slightly to 52.0 from 52.2, while a survey on Britain's giant services sector is forecast to inch down to 54.5 from 55.0 last month.

Data released last week showed the British economy grew by just 0.3% in the January-March quarter, underlining worries that the economy is slowing just as Prime Minister Theresa May prepares to start negotiations to leave the European Union.

5. Chinese Manufacturing Data for April

The Caixin manufacturing index, which focuses more on small and mid-sized firms, is due at 01:45GMT Tuesday (9:45PM ET Monday). The survey is expected to inch down to 51.0 from 51.2 in the preceding month.

The official manufacturing purchasing managers' index released on Sunday dipped to a six-month low of 51.2 in April from 51.8 in March, below the forecast for 51.6.

Anything above 50.0 signals expansion, while readings below 50.0 indicate industry contraction.

China's economy grew 6.9% in the first quarter, boosted by higher government infrastructure spending. But growth is expected to slow as policymakers take steps to reduce financial risks in the economy.

Stay up-to-date on all of this week's economic events by visiting: http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

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