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Australia, NZ dlrs edge up on soft US data, dairy and Fed in focus

Published 29/03/2016, 12:23 pm
© Reuters.  Australia, NZ dlrs edge up on soft US data, dairy and Fed in focus
NZD/USD
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AU2YT=RR
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By Cecile Lefort and Charlotte Greenfield

SYDNEY/WELLINGTON, March 29 (Reuters) - The Australian and New Zealand dollars rose on Tuesday as attractive government bond yields lured investors after disappointing U.S. data pushed back expectations of a rate increase by the Federal Reserve.

The Australian dollar AUD=D4 edged up to $0.7551, from $0.7533 on Thursday before the long Easter break. It remained within reach of an 8-month summit of $0.7681 touched earlier this month.

It has leapt 5.7 percent so far in March which, if sustained, would be the largest monthly rise since 2011. Much of the gains are due to a weaker U.S. currency on fading expectations the Fed will resume raising rates soon.

Dealers cited selling interest around $0.7560 and $0.7580. Support was found at Thursday's low of $0.7477.

The next big event for foreign exchange markets is a speech by Fed Chair Janet Yellen on the economic outlook and monetary policy at 1620 GMT on Tuesday.

The focus then moves to China's manufacturing PMI survey on Friday. The Australian dollar is sensitive to news out of China, its major export market.

Elias Haddad, a senior currency Strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, forecasts the world's second-biggest economy to show modest improvement in manufacturing after the Chinese Lunar New Year.

Also helping are attractive government bond yields with Australia's 2-year bonds paying 2.0 percent AU2YT=RR . New Zealand's counterparts offer 2.1 percent compared with the negative yields of Germany, France, Sweden and more recently Japan.

Australian government bond futures were a touch firmer, with the three-year bond contract YTTc1 up 1 tick at 98.040. The 10-year contract YTCc1 rose half a tick to 97.4250, while the 20-year contract YXXc1 edged up 1 tick to 96.8550.

The New Zealand dollar NZD=D4 rallied overnight, rising to $0.6736 from as low as $0.6670 the previous session after six days of falls.

"With no domestic events, the USD remains the driver with Fed Chair Yellen speaking tonight," ANZ analysts said in a research note.

Investors would also be watching the Global Dairy Price auction held in the early hours of Wednesday morning. No doubt the kiwi will come under pressure on any signs of further weakness in dairy prices after they dropped 2.9 percent at the previous sale.

Analysts expected the kiwi to trade between $0.6660 and $0.6780.

New Zealand government bonds 0#NZTSY= gained, sending yields 1 basis points lower along most of the curve. (Editing by Shri Navaratnam)

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